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Summer 2003 Contest

Stats & Discussion - Summer 2003 Contest

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From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/2/2003 1:03:57 PM | Message Detail

Okay, the stats website is updated. Contest averages will be added shortly (once I have a chance to calculate them).

My god, this is my 57th post on this topic. My active messages will take a nosedive when this is purged...

Heh. What did I get up to last year? 149 or something? When that topic hit 500 I lost all of my active messages. :)
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: HydraCores | Posted: 8/2/2003 1:09:48 PM | Message Detail

Um... Haste2? Did I c Kirby vs. Jill on your lists? I might just be getting blind....
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The World will end in Fire, Ice, or Thunder. Depends on which one of my heads manages to eliminate the others....

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/2/2003 1:16:43 PM | Message Detail

Hey solar, I hope it's okay I linked to you from my site.

Naturally. I think I'll link yours in return.

Keep up the good work!

Thanks!
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: cyko | Posted: 8/2/2003 1:33:33 PM | Message Detail

cyko's Match 34 Preview

(12) Ganondorf vs. (13) Magus

we've been looking forward to this match for a month now, and it has been one of the most debated matches of Round 2. on the one hand, you have Ganondorf, the villain from the Legend of Zelda. a lot of fans of the series will support him, especially with the hope of forcing a Link vs. Ganondorf match. with Link supporters on his side, how can he lose, right? well, not necassarily. while the Zelda series draws a lot of votes, Ganondorf doesn't have a whole lot of personal support. most people view him as "the bad guy that Link fights", instead of as "Ganondorf the Almighty Gerudo King".

Magus not only has fans of his game (Chrono Trigger) behind him, but he has his own fans that love him. if you don't believe me, just look at the Official Magus RPG Party, which has near 150 members on this board. Magus also has the Square backing, which contains some of the most hardcore fans out there. Magus's only real weakness is that a lot of casual voters probably haven't even heard of him, let alone know who he is. but, he will make up for that with his much more impressive picture. Akira Toriyama's art can draw in the votes.

the general consensus seems to be: "well, Ganondorf just barely beat Tidus and Magus is way more popular than Tidus; therefore Magus will win." on the boards, yes, Magus is far more popular than whiny Tidus, but the boards aren't always right. on the boards, Kefka was supposed to be a serious threat to Crono and maybe even Mario and Sephiroth. but instead, he barely beat Pac-Man. being an old character means not everyone knows who you are, which will cost you votes. i'm trying to be as objective as possible, but even with being an older character, i also think that Magus has to be more popular than Tidus.

but there is one small stat that does worry me about Magus's potential victory. take a look at the results of every Square vs. Nintendo match:

Summer2K2-

Cloud- 54643 vs. Fox McCloud- 18599
Aya Brea- 30478 vs. Donkey Kong- 31798
Cloud- 59926 vs. Pikachu- 15445
Cloud- 64713 vs. Mario- 64990
Sephiroth- 51177 vs. Samus- 46047
Crono- 53716 vs. Mario- 53831
Sephiroth- 44597 vs. Link- 58273

Summer2K3-

Tidus- 57078 vs. Ganondorf- 58660
Crono- 88469 vs. Tom Nook- 14631
Ramza- 42482 vs. Kirby- 57862

Nintendo has won six out of the ten Nintendo vs. Square, but three of their four losses were pushovers (Fox, Pikachu, and Tom Nook) in fact, the only half-way decent Nintendo character Square has beaten was Samus. and in all four really close matches (winners getting 51% or less), Nintendo has come out ahead. Nintendo followers are just as bad as Square fanboys. i mention these stats because the next two matches are both Nintendo vs. Square (and Luigi is looking like the favorite over Squall on monday). will Magus be able to break the trend, maybe even keep it from being a nailbiter? with his loyal following and picture advantage, i believe that Magus will pull it out. but it will be close; not as close as Tidus vs. Ganondorf, but still close.

prediction: Magus with 51-55%

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Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti

From: Yesmar | Posted: 8/2/2003 1:47:32 PM | Message Detail

So far I have 28 points (Thanks to Squall, Shadow, Kefka, and Knuckles.) I still think that Kefka wasn't overestimated as much as Pac-Man was underestimated.

And to talk about Ganondorf Vs. Magus:

As much as I want Ganondorf to win (for more than one reason) he will fall to Magus, although the fight will be close.

And shameless self promotion for my web site:
https://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Pic_History.htm
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The wind...It is blowing.--Ganondorf in The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker

From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/2/2003 2:21:34 PM | Message Detail

Match #28 - Dante VS Ryo Hazuki - Review

Dante - 74068 / 77.65%
Ryo Hazuki - 21316 / 22.35%

Total - 95384 (23rd highest)

Prediction Percentage - 83.5% (19th hardest)
My Pick - Dante
Analysis Topic Pick - Dante
"Odds" Pick - Dante

Brackets Ruined - 43

I knew Dante would win, but I didn't think the margin of victory would be this large. Ryo's pretty useless, but he managed to beat Guybrush last year, so he must have some support. Though many thought Dante would be less popular than last year because of DMC2, it looks like the opposite has occurred. Ryu VS Dante just got a lot closer, but it's hardly time to declare an upset yet. Like Snowflake said, Dante's popularity is most likely quite fleeting. Most voters should lean towards Capcom's other hero in round two. Whoever does win, it's safe to say that they won't be going any further. Neither Dante or Ryu have showed they have what it takes to beat Snake.

More to come... I'll get caught up eventually!

I have 28 points right now (Jill, Scorpion, Wario, and Yuna)which is better than the 25 points I had at the end of last year's first round.

"Scorpion did worse against Link than STRIDER last year"

Had this been brought to my attention before the contest started, I might have saved myself a point. XP I liked your winners/losers column, and I agree with most of it. I don't think Ganondorf is a loser though, taking down Titus is something to be proud of. I think his match with Magus will be close.

"Off-topic: My brother rented Wind Waker today, and it looks awesome. No kidding."

WW is an amazing game. I didn't like it as much as OoT, but its ending sequence is the most beautiful thing I've seen in a videogame ever. And if you play it I'm sure you'll walk away liking Ganondorf more.

---
Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 28-4 / 28 points won / 4 points lost / Tied at #1094

From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/2/2003 3:43:42 PM | Message Detail

Match #33 Review

Do I really need to write one? All I can say is that everything's going according to plan, as far as a repeat is concerned. Of course, there's one big stretch of top contenders awaiting, but Link will run into them with full momentum.

Match #34 Preview

I'm going to concentrate my efforts here instead. Both were disappointing in round 1... Ganondorf barely took out Tidus, who's a hated figure among some FF/Square fans. Therefore, that's some votes that will go from Ganondorf to Magus... we'd need only 800 for the tie, and I bet there's much more than that. However, there will also people that voted Tidus that will vote Ganondorf this time around. Much less, though, because Ganondorf has less haters inside of his own fanbase.

Magus, on his side, defeated Sam Fisher, the star of Splinter Cell, a multiplatform game that's big enough... and he doesn't have Freeman Flu. Can he compare to Dante, seeing how similar the results were to Crono vs. Dante? In my view, yes. Crono missing the finals by 115 votes last year shows how much more popular he is than Tidus, who lost 60-40 to Sonic last year, which is in every way worse than a virtual tie with Mario. And if Magus is on par with THAT, there's no way out for Ganondorf.

Now, there's a factor that will probably not come into play, but if it does, it will be devastating for Ganondorf. It goes like this: outside forces can and will attempt to push the vote for their favorite. Now, why could it kill Ganondorf, but not Magus? Ganondorf isn't as big in the Nintendo world as Magus is in Square's. To put it bluntly, for the Nintendites, this match will be meaningless, unless they have Ganondorf beating Link in their brackets, while on Square's side, Magus is one of... nay, their best hope of bringing Link down, so they'll want to protect him until the big clash. As I said, this will probably not happen, but if it does... expect outside interference to be for Magus.

Last thought: Aeon Azuran will fall tomorrow if Ganondorf wins... he has Magus winning the whole tournament. (And I think another perfect has ALUCARD winning it all.)
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 30/32, 0 lost . . . . . T-68 (284-way)
Today's pick: Link over Fox

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/2/2003 3:53:37 PM | Message Detail

The Contest Averages section has been updated with the first round averages. Phew. Here they are:

Average Number of Votes Received By The Winning Character

North Division - 68790 / 68.60%
East Division - 70748 / 68.04%
South Division - 69510 / 68.52%
West Division - 71522 / 70.59%
Round Average - 70142 / 68.94%

Average Number of Votes Received By The Losing Character

North Division - 31769 / 31.40%
East Division - 33298 / 31.96%
South Division - 31161 / 31.48%
West Division - 29934 / 29.41%
Round Average - 31540 / 31.06%

Average Number of Total Votes Per Match

North Division - 100559
East Division - 104046
South Division - 100671
West Division - 101456
Round Average - 101683

Average Win Margin

North Division - 37021 / 37.20%
East Division - 37450 / 36.07%
South Division - 38349 / 37.05%
West Division - 41588 / 41.17%
Round Average - 38602 / 37.87%

Average Number of Contest Entrants Predicting Each Match Correctly (out of 41059 total entrants)

North Division - 28096 / 68.43%
East Division - 30168 / 73.47%
South Division - 29702 / 72.34%
West Division - 32203 / 78.43%
Round Average - 30042 / 73.17%

Average Number of Points Earned by Contest Entrants (out of 8 possible points per division, 32 per round)

North Division - 5.47
East Division - 5.88
South Division - 5.79
West Division - 6.27
Round Average - 23.41

I'll leave specific comparison to the 2002 averages up to someone else (at least for the moment), but it's worth pointing out that while the vote counts are way up, the overall percentages are very similar. The thing that surprised me the most is that the average number of points earned by contestants is actually a bit lower than last year (23.41 this year versus 23.74 last year). I would've thought that with all of last year's knowledge and all of this year's advanced speculation we would've collectively come out a little higher. I know for my part I have the same score as last year, so maybe a lot hasn't changed. Let's hope it gets better as the rounds wear on. :)
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/2/2003 3:54:57 PM | Message Detail

Hey! Can I do it for the total votes per match?
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 30/32, 0 lost . . . . . T-68 (284-way)
Today's pick: Link over Fox

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/2/2003 3:58:33 PM | Message Detail

Go nuts. I think I need a nap. ;)
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/2/2003 5:10:08 PM | Message Detail

2002 vs. 2003 - Total vote counts for round 1

Overall

2002: 1928709
2003: 3253848
Variation: +068.71%

By division

Div. 2002 . . 2003 . . . Variation
N . 464025 . 804469 . +073.37%
E . 492964 . 832368 . +068.85%
S . 473037 . 805365 . +070.25%
W. 498683 . 811646 . +062.76%

By match

No. 2002 . . . 2003 . . . Variation
01 . 053213 . 101800 . +091.31%
02 . 057359 . 098818 . +072.28%
03 . 056566 . 115738 . +104.61%
04 . 052618 . 091464 . +073.83%
05 . 061706 . 095666 . +055.04%
06 . 052874 . 094649 . +079.01%
07 . 056447 . 098651 . +074.77%
08 . 073242 . 107683 . +047.02%
09 . 064249 . 108254 . +068.49%
10 . 055392 . 108884 . +096.57%
11 . 064189 . 098791 . +053.91%
12 . 058198 . 092418 . +058.80%
13 . 060878 . 097810 . +060.67%
14 . 056361 . 106780 . +089.46%
15 . 062021 . 112801 . +081.88%
16 . 071676 . 106630 . +048.77%
17 . 056989 . 100867 . +076.99%
18 . 053920 . 104607 . +094.00%
19 . 059609 . 093583 . +056.99%
20 . 050816 . 103100 . +102.89%
21 . 052419 . 101384 . +093.41%
22 . 070376 . 100344 . +042.58%
23 . 058323 . 091278 . +056.50%
24 . 070585 . 110202 . +056.13%
25 . 064315 . 102118 . +058.78%
26 . 063121 . 101894 . +061.43%
27 . 062555 . 096408 . +054.12%
28 . 058014 . 095384 . +064.42%
29 . 068296 . 097770 . +043.16%
30 . 054997 . 100886 . +083.44%
31 . 069969 . 113881 . +062.76%
32 . 057416 . 103305 . +079.92%
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 30/32, 0 lost . . . . . T-68 (284-way)
Today's pick: Link over Fox

From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/2/2003 6:36:24 PM | Message Detail

As half-promised earlier, the Poll Stats are back for the end of the first round!
Check 'em out here:

http://members.aol.com/Jjukil/pollstat.html

You can also go from there to the Full Lists, which take all that raw data and make it interesting.

I'm pretty sure I'm going to make these stats a first-round study only, though. It's hard to be here at 11:00 sometimes, and the results probably won't change much from here. I'll keep logging them until the end of the North division, though, just in case anyone wants to pick up where I left off. =)

----

So what conclusions can be drawn from this study?
Mainly, a couple of things you already knew:
1) The polls don't start at midnight.
2) Any poll that isn't close is over in the first thirty minutes.

As the charts show, the polls don't start at any specified time. I've heard before that CJayC uses an automated script to update the polls, but if so, it must have at least one random variable in it--there's a full hour's difference between the earliest and latest start time, even without the Sam/Magus glitch. (Gordon/Max started at 11:17; Alucard/Bomberman started at 12:18.) So, basically, if you want to be here for the start of the poll, come by at 11:00 and prepare cruise the boards for a while. The average may be 11:45, but all of four polls started even within five minutes of that....

The differentials were actually a bit shocking to me, though. Not only are the polls usually over in the first minute--the percentages are decided in the first thirty. Fully 3/4 of the polls' first-freeze tallies predicted the final results within a 5% margin of error. Granted, there are exceptions, but they seem few and far between; only one blowout was lost (Yoshi's), and only one poll went from a solid win to a close race (Master Chief's). The irregular tallies are, of course, a different story...but even there, the highest difference logged outside of Cloud/CATS was 14.94%. Besides, those were the most irregular results recorded; the other results are often much closer to the counts at the first freeze.

Finally, one of the most interesting parts of the Full Lists (to me, anyway) were the Votes Per Minute. It's pretty similar to the normal Most Popular Polls lists, but there's a few oddities here and there. The most notable being the first two polls, of course. For the longest time, I thought Kirby/Ramza had that locked thanks to a glitch--the server outage came at one of the lightest voting times on the site. But Lara/Zelda actually overcame that with a full 80 votes per minute. I'll say it again: what was up with that poll...?
The other most notable one, I think, was Sam/Magus. I'd known for a while it was a short poll, so I expected it to climb the charts in VPM...but it's still sixth from the last. Sad to see the new SNES icons getting such disrespect....

----

Well, that's about it. I'll be back later for comments on recent matches...but if you need a dose of my biased poison now, I will say this:
Magus will win. Or at least he'd damned well better. -_-
There. That should be sufficient. ;)

From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/2/2003 9:18:37 PM | Message Detail

I have some interesting awards for Round 1 matches, for both this year and last year. An asterisk represents any Round 1 battles in 2002.

1. Biggest Upset Strictly by Seeding -
4) Sam Fisher vs. 13) Magus
3) Gordon Freeman vs. 14) Tina Armstrong*

2. Biggest Blowout in a "Bracket Upset" Match -
8) Wario vs. 9) Shadow the Hedgehog - 64.9%
8) Spryo the Dragon vs. 9) Morrigan Aensland - 68.29%*

3. Biggest Blowout in an Upset Strictly by Seeding -
8) Pikachu vs. 9) Fox McCloud - 68.67%
8) Spyro the Dragon vs. 9) Morrigan Aensland - 68.29%*

4. Easiest "Seeding Upset" Match to Predict -
6) Sora vs. 11)Aeris - 70.68% [of brackets correct]
6)Kasumi vs. 11)Aeris - 67.44%*

5. Toughest "Seeding Non-Upset" Match to Predict -
7) KOS-MOS vs. 10) Crash Bandicoot -42.45%
3) Jill Valentine vs. 14) Kirby - 50.77%*

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

From: torey luvullo | Posted: 8/2/2003 9:24:33 PM | Message Detail

great numbers jjukil.

From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/3/2003 12:45:58 AM | Message Detail

Just wondering, did anybody here save a copy of CjayC's Contest Statistics page after Round 32? I've been saving copies of it, but I forgot to do it after Round 32.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/3/2003 1:29:17 AM | Message Detail

Slowflake - Good job with those vote totals stats. The totals really rocketed up. It's interesting to see how much variation there is between divisions though (not to mention specific matches). Looks like a lot of it really depends on how exciting the match ups are.

Jjukil - Amazing work. I need a little more time to pour over those before responding though. I think my eyes are bleeding. Too many numbers today, not enough sleep. ;)

Haste2 - Very cool. I love upset stuff. :) Those categories make for some very interesting comparison.

Team Rocket Elite - Try checking King Morgoth's site first: http://www.geocities.com/kingmorgoth/predictions.html
He should have it up eventually. If not, I've probably still got it saved in my cache, so hit me up later if you need to and I'll search it out for you.
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: emeraldweapon | Posted: 8/3/2003 7:06:10 AM | Message Detail

I keep losing this thread, so I'm posting to keep track of it.
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"Growing older is mandatory. Growing up is optional."

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/3/2003 11:34:47 AM | Message Detail

Oh, remember that graph I promised weeks and weeks ago? I finally put it up on the stats site. Nothing too fancy, just a look at the popularity of the polls this year and last. I'm sure you can find it without my help, but here it is anyway:
https://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/graphs.html
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: Yesmar | Posted: 8/3/2003 1:10:12 PM | Message Detail

4. Easiest "Seeding Upset" Match to Predict -
6) Sora vs. 11)Aeris - 70.68% [of brackets correct]
6)Kasumi vs. 11)Aeris - 67.44%*

This once again begs the question of why is Aeris so underseeded?

Oh, and isn't Aeris the only person to be in the same exact spot both years?

And Kirby was in the same exact match, but his seed was flipflopped.
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The wind...It is blowing.--Ganondorf in The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker

From: Who Cares? | Posted: 8/3/2003 2:47:00 PM | Message Detail

I believe Aeris and Mario are the only two characters that stayed in the same seeding position as last year.

Anyway, what is up with this match. This is the first chance I've had to see it all day and suddenely I see all of these cheating topics. Then I read the Match Updates & noticed the huge chunk Ganondorf keeps taking off each update. Now I'm really curious as to how much the 'morning vote' has made an impact in all of these close matches.

But right now, Ganondorf is making my observation about 5 v 12 seeded characters being in a prime position look good! :)

From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/3/2003 3:01:22 PM | Message Detail

Match #34 is too ****ing close to call, even though Magus seems to have stopped the carnage for now. So... the review will have to wait until tomorrow. But down the crapper goes my 58% prediction, dats fo shu.

In case anyone's interested, I decided to keep the current division of the All-Star tournament up for a day longer, because everyone's going wild on Ganondorf vs. Magus.

Match #36 Preview

Kind of a breather here. I stand firm on my prediction here: the Ratchet Rebound is sure puzzling, but Mario scored 75% against a total loser last year, and look where it took him. We can use last year's Snake vs. Squall as a reference: where is Luigi compared to Snake, and how much popularity did Squall earn with Kingdom Hearts? Is this enough to give Squall the 15% needed for the win? I doubt it. Snake's a big name and all, but it's freakin' Luigi. And, even if he's a bit below Snake, it still gives him a lot of points to play with. Squall beat Jill, but he didn't destroy her. And in retrospect, Jill's wins over Kirby and Bomberman weren't THAT impressive, and neither did her destruction at the hands of Link. So Squall whacking a weak opponent could have been what really happened in round 1. If you're still not sure Luigi can take Squall, I'll take it from the other side: is Luigi worth 10% over Jill? I think he's worth even more. So while I think Luigi will win, he'll have a very tough time getting 60%.
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 32/34, 0 lost . . . . Position unknown
Today's pick: Magus over Ganondorf

From: Camwi | Posted: 8/3/2003 3:02:10 PM | Message Detail

Magus Magus Magus! Come on, guy! You can do it! w00t!!

---
Finally back from being banned since 10/9/02.. (Note lack of karma)
Official sponsor for Magus in the 2003 Summer Contest ^_^

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/3/2003 5:50:32 PM | Message Detail

Some catch up. Although it's probably mostly pointless of me to post these. Ever since CJayC starting doing his own stats page I've really only been useful for the Top 10 Lists and Contest Averages. But oh well, it's tradition.

6 - Donkey Kong - 61027 / 62.42% (97770) - 36020 / 87.7%
11 - Vyse - 36743 / 37.58% (97770) - 5039 / 12.3%

3 - Tommy Vercetti - 65818 / 65.24% (100886) - 34384 / 83.7%
14 - Kite - 35068 / 34.76% (100886) - 6675 / 16.3%

7 - Lara Croft - 42940 / 37.71% (113881) - 15719 / 38.3%
10 - Zelda - 70941 / 62.29% (113881) - 25340 / 61.7%

2 - Mega Man - 91905 / 88.96% (103305) - 39257 / 95.6%
15 - Mr. Resetti - 11400 / 11.04% (103305) - 1802 / 4.4%
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: BigE | Posted: 8/3/2003 6:38:15 PM | Message Detail

Not just Mario and Aeris kept their position. Alucard was 6th seed last year, and Dante was 4th.

Weeee!

From: Jjukil | Posted: 8/3/2003 6:50:56 PM | Message Detail

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/3/2003 6:58:13 PM | Message Detail

Tonight's Results:

1 - Link - 81148 / 82.46% (98409) - 39180 / 95.4%
9 - Fox McCloud - 17261 / 17.54% (98409)

Affected Top 10 Lists:

Top 10 Biggest Blowouts (difference in brackets)

1) Link 91.35% vs. AiAi 8.65% - (82.70%)
2) Mega Man 88.96% vs. Mr. Resetti 11.04% - (77.92%)
3) Mario 88.42% vs. Captain Olimar 11.58% - (76.84%)
4) Cloud Strife 86.91% vs. CATS 13.09% - (73.82%)
5) Crono 85.81% vs. Tom Nook 14.19% - (71.62%)
6) Solid Snake 82.88% vs. Raiden 17.12% - (65.76%)
7) (ii) Link 82.46% vs. Fox McCloud 17.54% - (64.92%)
8) Sephiroth 82.00% vs. Raziel 18.00% - (64.00%)
9) Dante 77.65% vs. Ryo Hazuki 22.35% - (55.30%)
10) Samus Aran 75.34% vs. Isaac 24.66% - (50.68%)

Top 10 Highest Individual Votes

1) Cloud Strife - 94086
2) Link - 92998
3) Mega Man - 91905
4) Sephiroth - 90364
5) Mario - 89189
6) Crono - 88469
7) Solid Snake - 84638
8) (ii) Link - 81148
9) Samus Aran - 81123
10) Bowser - 74164

Top 10 Most Impressive Losers (by votes)

1) Tidus - 57078
2) Felix - 50231
3) Pac-Man - 45905
4) Yuna - 45531
5) Lara Croft - 42940
6) Ramza Beoulve - 42482
7) Gordon Freeman - 41997
8) Scorpion - 41916
9) (ii) Fox McCloud - 39180
10) Miles "Tails" Prower - 38685

Top 10 Easiest Matches to Predict (based on entrants choosing the winner)

1) Link 99.1% vs. AiAi 0.9%
2) Mario 98.0% vs. Captain Olimar 2.0%
3) Mega Man 95.6% vs. Mr. Resetti 4.4%
4) (ii) Link 95.4% vs. Fox McCloud
5) Cloud Strife 94.9% vs. CATS 5.1%
6) Sephiroth 93.9% vs. Raziel 6.1%
7) Samus Aran 93.8% vs. Isaac 6.2%
8) Crono 92.8% vs. Tom Nook 7.2%
9) Solid Snake 92.6% vs. Raiden 7.4%
10) Luigi 87.9% vs. Ratchet 12.1%

Very interesting. I'll be by with some commentary much later.

Also, the website is partially updated. Just the main section, really. But you've got the updated Top 10 Lists right here, so I'll wait until later to do that.

The Oracle Challenge is now accepting predictions for the East Division. See its new topic here:
http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=9331148

That'll do it for now. I think I'm going to skip my usual pre/post round analysis this year. It's hard to find the time...

P.S. The 2002 stats site just got its 10,000th hit. Wow.
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/3/2003 7:02:25 PM | Message Detail

I noticed a small error on your top 10 charts. Fox only got 17261 votes, not 39180, against Link.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/3/2003 7:06:24 PM | Message Detail

Oops, that makes a lot more sense. How did I do that? Oh well, I'll fix it later. I bet that'll cause me a lot of grief...
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/3/2003 9:08:17 PM | Message Detail

Heh, I think I know how that happened (sort of). I was trying to do too much at once, there were numbers flying everywhere, and somehow the number of people correctly predicting the match ended up where Fox's vote total was supposed to be. I'm not exactly sure how that happened. I knew I was doing too much, but I was expecting to screw up in an entirely different way, so that must have slipped by. Still should have caught it on double check though. I knew it looked funny. I remember thinking, "Wow, I don't think I've ever put the winner on the highest individual votes list and the loser on the most impressive losers list for the same match before!" Heh. Oh well. Thanks for pointing it out. Hope that was the only problem. :)

Okay, these two lists should have been included, and are correct now. Also, ignore Fox's brief appearance on the Most Impressive Losers list (above). He did not deserve to be there. ;)

Top 10 Biggest Vote Gaps (difference in brackets)

1) Link 92998 vs. AiAi 8802 - (84196)
2) Mega Man 91905 vs. Mr. Resetti 11400 - (80505)
3) Cloud Strife 94086 vs. CATS 14168 - (79918)
4) Mario 89189 vs. Captain Olimar 11678 - (77511)
5) Crono 88469 vs. Tom Nook 14631 - (73838)
6) Sephiroth 90364 vs. Raziel 19838 - (70526)
7) Solid Snake 84638 vs. Raiden 17480 - (67158)
8) (ii) Link 81148 vs. Fox McCloud 17261 - (63887)
9) Samus Aran 81123 vs. Isaac 26560 - (54563)
10) Dante 74068 vs. Ryo Hazuki 21316 - (52752)

Top 10 Lowest Individual Votes

1) AiAi - 8802
2) Mr. Resetti - 11400
3) Captain Olimar - 11678
4) CATS - 14168
5) Tom Nook - 14631
6) (ii) Fox McCloud - 17261
7) Raiden - 17480
8) Raziel - 19838
9) Ryo Hazuki - 21316
10) Ratchet - 24099
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/3/2003 9:23:03 PM | Message Detail

Does anyone else think it's absolutely insane that more people predicted Link over AiAi, Pikachu, AND Fox than Crono over Tom Nook? Insane, I tell you!

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

From: MMXcalibur | Posted: 8/3/2003 9:28:12 PM | Message Detail

I'm not sure what to make of this match.

Ganondorf just can't make it past Magus' 400 vote barrier.

Whenever he gains some steam and gets a lil' rally goin', Magus answers right back.

I think Ganondorf is going to run out of time if he doesn't do something NOW!!!!
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MEGA MAN RD.2: vs Zelda
(12)Ganondorf vs (13)Magus (31/34 pts.)

From: NT220 | Posted: 8/3/2003 10:56:20 PM | Message Detail

Ganondorf vs. Magus

Well, either way this match turns out, it cements Magus's place beside Tommy Vercetti and Kefka as one of the biggest disappointments of Summer 2003. Once billed as one of the major threats to take down Link, he couldn't even build a significant lead against Ganon, watching his lead erode as the day went on. In fact, this makes Magus's performance analogous with Aya Brea's last year - both beat an overseeded scrub in the first round, then took a Nintendo character to a photo-finish. The results of this match is still up in the air, but either way it means that Magus isn't much stronger than Tidus or Aya - not favorable comparisons at all.

As I said before, 16-bit RPG support outside of Crono isn't as strong as we thought. Chrono Trigger gets lots and lots of love (more than it deserves, perhaps) in the boards, but the board isn't exactly a good indicator of game/character popularity as CATS can testify. CT may have been the most popular RPG of its era, but it still can't come close to the PSX giants. Of course, Crono's popularity is mystifying in this light, although perhaps spikey hair and a katana pulls more weight then expected. Either way, Magus won't be a challenge to Link - he'll be lucky to get 35%. I still think his and Sam's seedings should have been switched, but he ain't a title hope no matter what the draw.

Oh, and it's a shame that the cheating accusations have to start this round. Inevitable, but still a shame.
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"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin

From: solarshadow | Posted: 8/3/2003 10:59:49 PM | Message Detail

No thanks... if I wanted to enter, I'd put more precise percentages. I just wanted to give an approximative idea of how I thought the matches would turn out.

That's too bad. Because after the Link battle you would've been in 8th. Not looking too good on Magus though. ;)
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: MyWorldIsSquare | Posted: 8/3/2003 11:12:03 PM | Message Detail

Well, either way this match turns out, it cements Magus's place beside Tommy Vercetti and Kefka as one of the biggest disappointments of Summer 2003.

Nah, not really.

A Sweet Sixteen appearance...which Magus, at this point, looks to inevitably take, even if only by a 500 vote margin...is damn decent for a videogame character regardless of how you color it. For a one-game RPG character that's NOT in a Final Fantasy...Magus...to be doing so damn well against a legend like Ganon is a great indicator of what a wonderful character he was. :P

Oh, and let me add this for thought; if seeded against certain different opponents, I could envision Magus getting much farther than the Sweet 16. Link will stop him in is tracks, I'm sure, but many of the others wouldn't be as lucky.

So, Magus is doing just fine and dandy by my account. He's only a disappointment if you expected him to beat the huge gaming giants, but seriously, I never would have expected him to beat Link, and I'm a Magus fanatic. I just gotta admit that Magus, like Kefka, is more of an RPG fad character...serious, hardcore RPG gamers who actually know who he is love him to death (myself included), but other RPG characters from more popular games (*cough* FF7 *hack* *cough*) will tend to garner more votes simply because the game(s) are more well-known.

(Plus, characters like Sephy and Squall are bound to generate more votes from the Kingdom Hearts effect, which made both those characters in particular a lot cooler in my eyes. If Magus appeared in a cameo on a PS2 game like KH, Magus would have done much better, as he'd have endeared himself to a whole new generation of gamers.)

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Check out Endgame, my fanfiction project...my Survivor topic...and my Summer Contest CYOA Fanfic.

From: NT220 | Posted: 8/3/2003 11:24:27 PM | Message Detail

When I was picking out my bracket, I didn't expect Magus to do that well, either. In fact, I had a pretty long debate with myself on who would win between Magus and Ganon. When I came to this board, though, the Magus support surprised me. A lot of people were hyping him up as Link's first true challenger, and a small but insistent handful even proclaimed him as the one who will end Link's reign. Even in this thread, Magus gets a lot of credit. Hell, Slowflake even counted Magus as a top-tier in his "easiest road to the championship" analysis.

I was a bit swayed by the Magus hype myself, to the point where I didn't think he'd have any trouble against Ganon.
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"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin

From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/3/2003 11:43:28 PM | Message Detail

Match #34 Review

Me? At this hour? Yea, I decided to go to bed earlier and cut the night in two for the big showdown. Looks like it wasn't to be... Magus seems to have this in the bag.

OK, first of all, I'm stunned at the number of people who say that if Magus can beat Ganondorf, he can beat Link because they have the same fanbase. To that, I answer... could Tidus lose only by 2000 to Link? His loss to Sonic last year was in the TENS OF THOUSANDS, and we know how hard Link would whip Sonic's butt...

Of course, this means Sonic would have no problem against Magus, which makes me look like an ass when I supported for a long time that it was the reverse. Officially bar Magus from the list of top-tiers, and replace it with Sonic. Congratulations, you won.

But what does this mean for the future of the survivor? Pain and suffering next round, that's what.

Well, I think I'm done. Any comments? ... or "PWNED"?
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . 32/34, 0 lost . . . . Position unknown
Today's pick: Magus over Ganondorf

From: cyko | Posted: 8/3/2003 11:48:15 PM | Message Detail

cyko's Match 35 Preview

(3) Luigi vs. (6) Squall Leonheart

i thought i better get this one in first before the match started. =P here we go with a second Nintendo vs. Square in a row. however, this match isn't expected to be anywhere near as close as Magus vs. Ganondorf. Luigi's strength is still a little hard to gauge. Ratchet was a relatively unrecognizable (and goofy looking) character. he has the eternal underdog support of younger brothers everywhere, but we really don't have anything to compare his popularity to his brother, Mario. is he more of a contender than Mario, or will he fizzle out right away? just being a big part of the Mario Bros. series should give Luigi enough momentum to get past Squall.

Squall is one of the lesser liked Final Fantasy heroes; some say even more than Tidus. he still has the Square support and Kingdom Hearts has helped his image somewhat. but his 60% victory over Jill doesn't give me enough reason to believe that he can take Luigi down. we might be overestimating Luigi, but i still think he can take it; if for no other reason, than for Nintendo's revenge for Ganondorf. Luigi will have to make quite a strong showing here, though, to have a chance against Samus next round.

prediction- Luigi with 58-62%
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Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti

From: FFantasyFX | Posted: 8/3/2003 11:53:00 PM | Message Detail

Great and informative discussion guys.

A hypothetical though: If this match had been held tomorrow, Monday, rather than today, would Gannon have won?

There is no way to get a definitive answer that question, but it is interesting to ponder. How much of a variable does the day make? Besides one bizarre evening run, Ganondorf did most of his damage during the prime "casual" voting hours (early morning to early afternoon). Most weekday contests attract more voters, which I assume would be more likely to be casual voters. Would a simple shift in day been enough to change the results of the match? Maybe, maybe not. Just throwing it out for discussion.

From: Old Master Q | Posted: 8/4/2003 1:01:44 AM | Message Detail

Annd noww, we have the second major upset of the tournament!!

Lotsa users on this board (including me) are going nuts, I might add.

Squall sure has surprised us this year. First Jill, and now LUIGI????
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TROGDOR!!
Sum2k3 score - 32/36 Next pick: Luigi

From: Samberdog | Posted: 8/4/2003 1:06:02 AM | Message Detail

SQUALL!

I liked FF8, but now Squall has to ruin everything. I liked him better last year when he took his beating from Solid Snake like a man.
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Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 30-4 / 32 points won / 4 points lost / Tied at #657

From: NT220 | Posted: 8/4/2003 1:07:53 AM | Message Detail

Blah, two more points down the crapper.

Still don't see Squall downing Samus, though.
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"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin

From: Who Cares? | Posted: 8/4/2003 1:19:54 AM | Message Detail

WHAT THE CRAP!!! Right now, Squall beating Luigi in this early stage HAS to rank higher than Shadow over Wario in the 'biggest upset' department. I always felt that this match would be interesting in the first hour or so, but I didn't expect this.

Did Kingdom Hearts seriously change the way people felt about this guy that much??? (Haven't played either KH or FF8) Whatever the case, this has to be the biggest single year turnaround in the contest, and it will take a massive morning vote by Luigi to take this one.

From: NT220 | Posted: 8/4/2003 1:21:22 AM | Message Detail

Well, anybody want to hazard a guess at how many brackets got this correct? I think the number would be surprisingly high... maybe even as high as 35%.
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"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin

From: creativename | Posted: 8/4/2003 1:32:06 AM | Message Detail

I...am...in...shock. I am dumbfounded. Not even Wario vs. Shadow shocked me nearly as much as this. HOW?!!????!!!!

@#$*%$ Squall. Seriously. I actually liked FF8, probably more than most. And I'm a HUGE Square fanboy. However, I care nothing for Squall. I don't really dislike him, like I dislike Zidane--however, Luigi has always been my boy. So this is pissing me the **** off.

How could this happen? I'm honestly at a loss. Kingdom Hearts is the only explanation. That, and of course Luigi not being as popular as anticipated. This result pretty much means that Luigi isn't even that much greater than Jill. That's just *wrong*.

One more thing: MAGUS IS NOT YET A DISAPPOINTMENT

I posted earlier in this thread how I expected the underestimation of Tidus to lead to a whole bunch of conclusions on this board--conclusions that weren't necessarily warranted. Here's a copy & paste of it:

*People underestimate Tidus, and Ganon barely beat Tidus
-->People will underestimate Ganon
*Magus vs. Ganon (let's assume Magus wins for the moment) could be much closer than people think, because Ganon is actually pretty strong.
-->Thus, if/when Magus doesn't convincingly beat Ganon, people will underestimate Magus.
*At this point, people might expect Link to annihilate Magus--however, while Link will very likely win, it probably won't be a complete mis-match.
-->If Magus get around 40% of the vote against Link, people will suddenly conclude Link is vulnerable. This will lead people to overestimating Samus' chances.

The board consensus right now appears to be that Link will slaughter Magus. This is possible (Link slaughtering anybody is hardly a surprise), but is hardly set in stone. Fact is, Ganon beating Tidus was quite impressive. Ganon is popular. I'd say Ganon is almost as popular as Solid freakin' Snake. Magus beating him, even by almost nothing, is not to be taken lightly.

Remember...Crono beat Snake with about 54%. I'd say that Magus and Ganon would each split with Snake 50/50. So while Crono might be more popular than Magus, Magus is hardly a chump. He's still a powerhouse in this tourney--and rather than seeing him as someone that was lucky to squeak by Ganon, we should instead think this: Magus, Ganon, AND Tidus were screwed by their bracket positioning.
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Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004!

From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/4/2003 1:47:25 AM | Message Detail

I am in awe from the results as well. Indeed, Luigi will likely catch up some in the morning, but it will more than likely not be enough. Well, there was a minute or two or Luigi glory at least...

It really confuses me...let's compare this to Mario vs. Cloud.

Mario beat Cloud. Squall is beating Luigi.

We know that Mario > Cloud and Squall > Luigi

Thus, if Cloud > Squall..
Then Mario >>> Luigi.

This makes no sense if you ask me. I thought Luigi would be MUCH closer to Mario than Squall would be to Cloud.

However, we can't forget that Planet GameCube helped out with Mario and Link last year; I suppose Mario would've lost to Cloud without them.

I know I might be jumping to conclusions early, but could this possibly mean that Mario will be disposed of by Crono this time around?

Who Cares?, aren't you supposed to not care what happens in this contest? =p

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

From: King Morgoth | Posted: 8/4/2003 1:50:35 AM | Message Detail

Team Rocket Elite - Sorry for the lack of updates, I've been really busy these past few days, but I've updated/completed the first round stats on my site (www.geocities.com/kingmorgoth), including a table with all the scores after the first round at the bottom. I'm going away for one week so I won't be able to update until Friday/Saturday, sadly
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"Everything gold does not glitter, Not all those who wander are lost"
Current Points: 33/36

From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/4/2003 2:08:07 AM | Message Detail

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/30/2003 5:11:33 PM
"Is being seeded third a kiss of death?"

Yes.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

From: creativename | Posted: 8/4/2003 2:14:00 AM | Message Detail

slowflake:
So the only deserving 3-seed EVER would be Luigi

0_o

<cries> :(

And another one bites the dust...
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Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004!

From: red sox 777 | Posted: 8/4/2003 7:49:05 AM | Message Detail

"However, we can't forget that Planet GameCube helped out with Mario and Link last year; I suppose Mario would've lost to Cloud without them.

I know I might be jumping to conclusions early, but could this possibly mean that Mario will be disposed of by Crono this time around?"

Well, if my memory serves me right, during the Mario/Cloud match, Mario was only behind by 700 at the point where Cloud's lead was largest (early morning). By the time of PGC's intervention, Mario was already on his way back, having cut the lead to 400. Also, PGC didn't intervene in the Mario/Crono match.
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Summer Contest 2003: 29 out of 34 points

From: steve illumina | Posted: 8/4/2003 8:24:15 AM | Message Detail

I, along with all of the other experts on this board, am in shock. I mean...all of us picked Luigi to win by margins between 50-70%! I did not read any picks for Squall by anyone on this thread! Aaaah!

How could it come to this? Average hero Squall taking out 20 year gaming star Luigi? Squall, disliked by even many of the Squareites, defeating one of the icons of Nintendo? This is gonna cost me 2 points to make it all worse!

Maybe we all overestimated Luigi...or underestimated Squall...or both...call it one of the great mysteries of gaming or something...geesh!

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~Steve Illumina~ Round 2: 2/2 Today: Go Luigi!
Official Sephiroth Supporter: Summer Contest 2003

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