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| Stats & Discussion - Summer 2003 Contest |
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| From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 7/4/2003 6:11:24 PM | Message Detail |
| I finshed compling the data I recieve from the Ganondrf vs. Tidus match and made a few graphs. Amount of votes each character had during the day: http://www.geocities.com/teamrocketelite/GanondorfvsTidus/GanondorfvsTidus.jpg Vote Difference throughout the day: http://www.geocities.com/teamrocketelite/GanondorfvsTidus/ GanondorfvsTidusDifference.jpg Votes Ganondorf recived during each update: http://www.geocities.com/teamrocketelite/GanondorfvsTidus/ GanondorfvsTidusGanondorfvotes.jpg Votes per minute: http://www.geocities.com/teamrocketelite/GanondorfvsTidus/ GanondorfvsTidusvotes.jpg The raw data from the battle: http://www.geocities.com/teamrocketelite/GanondorfvsTidus/GanondorfvsTidus.txt I made these three graphs to compare the voting habits of GameFAQs users. It's lists the percentage of their final vote total they had at any point in the contest: http://www.geocities.com/teamrocketelite/LinkvsAiai/LinkvsAiaiVotePercentage.jpg http://www.geocities.com/teamrocketelite/GanondorfvsTidus/ GanondorfvsTidusVotePercentage.jpg http://www.geocities.com/teamrocketelite/MariovsLinkVotePercentage.jpg It's interesting that the lines are pretty much on top of each other in the Link vs Aiai and Ganondorf vs Tidus matches, but in the Mario vs. Link finals the lines are almost completely seprete. --- 100 NidorinaF(Amber)/100 TangelaM(Spike)/100 HypnoM(Essence) 100 DodrioF(Tritoch)/100 ScizorM(Incision) |
| From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/4/2003 9:10:22 PM | Message Detail |
| Interesting Graphs TRE, esp. the votes per minute one. --- Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II" Current Record: 3-0 / 3 points won / 0 points lost |
| From: EvilNcr | Posted: 7/4/2003 9:20:33 PM | Message Detail |
| hmm.. I do think Squall's gonna take it. Jill had the square support for some reason and thus got able to take the match. She's losing it this time... but will the Nintendo support backlash squall? I doubt it... I know a few Nintendo friends who really like Squall. He's more popular than Tidus. It works like this... generally it's FFX - good game but i hate the hero. FF8 - Terrible game but squall is cool. And from my experience, it came true very very often. Tidus support was very silent before the match.. and squall's support seems more vocal this time. Might be fooling me.. but after tidus' performance.. I think he can dispatch Jill.. she's not exactly the most popular character either. --- The Reaper is always a step behind you ncr... |
| From: nifboy | Posted: 7/4/2003 10:07:30 PM | Message Detail |
| Match 5 I have Squall on my bracket, and I keep saying it's because of his far less annoying appearance in Kingdom Hearts. --- "We seek as much data - raw facts, direct experience - as we can, and then we make up our own minds." - J. Moore |
| From: Drakoi | Posted: 7/5/2003 12:32:52 AM | Message Detail |
| thanks for all your hard work last year. It really made the contest more fun. I'm glad you're back. --- Current Summer Contest Score 4/5 - Impeach Bush. Brain dead, coke-snorting, alcoholic, evil religious fanatics shouldn't be in charge of anything! |
| From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 7/5/2003 1:46:49 AM | Message Detail |
| I made a few more graphs from the Magus vs Sam battle: Amount of votes each character had during the day: http://www.geocities.com/teamrocketelite/MagusvsSam/MagusvsSam.jpg Vote Difference throughout the day: http://www.geocities.com/teamrocketelite/MagusvsSam/MagusvsSamDifference.jpg Votes Magus recived during each update: http://www.geocities.com/teamrocketelite/MagusvsSam/MagusvsSamMagusvotes.jpg Votes per minute: http://www.geocities.com/teamrocketelite/MagusvsSam/MagusvsSamvotes.jpg Percentage of final total: http://www.geocities.com/teamrocketelite/MagusvsSam/MagusvsSamVotePercentage.jpg Raw Data: http://www.geocities.com/teamrocketelite/MagusvsSam/MagusvsSam.txt --- 100 NidorinaF(Amber)/100 TangelaM(Spike)/100 HypnoM(Essence) 100 DodrioF(Tritoch)/100 ScizorM(Incision) |
| From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/5/2003 5:46:08 PM | Message Detail |
| Match #4 - Review Magus win with just under two thirds of the vote. Looking at the results, I maintain that it will be Magus facing Link in the third round, although his victory over Ganondorf may be a bit slimmer than most predicted. Magus has done well, but for someone who was supposed to be as popular as Crono I'm slightly underwhelmed. Hopefully Crono will be able to perform better than gamemate. Sam did alright, but it just goes to show that the newer, more hip hero's never do as well as the classics. Match #5 - Current Ugh. I lose my first point on a match that's not even close. This is the first pick to disagree with the predictions we made in the analysis topics. Only after losing can I realize that Squall's popularity has grown since last year, while Jill's has most likely fallen. Oh well, you can't win them all. Match #6 - Preview Luigi shouldn't have any problems beating down Ratchet. At least we'll get to see Luigi in action for the first time, which should prove interesting. --- Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II" Current Record: 4-0 / 4 points won / 0 points lost |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/5/2003 6:00:46 PM | Message Detail |
| *sighs* I'm dumb. I could have used the "Rechercher" function of my browser and type "solarshadow" for all of the first 20 pages. Instead I searched by hand, waiting to have access to my posting history. (UPDATE: Someone bumped this while I was typing this post. Darn.) But, that's not all... Match #5 Review I'm finished! Jill is defeated, and now my perfect bracket is ruined! ...Oookay, find who I just paraphrased and get a triple chocolate pie! Damn, Squall really rebounded on this one. I expected 52-48, but not that kind of blowout. Aaaaand... all the people who have Kirby over Ramza, me included, can be worried, because today's match makes Kirby look very weak. I mean, if SQUALL of all people can defeat the Kirby-killer by that margin... Match #6 Review Fortunately, Luigi will stop the carnage. But if he has trouble against Ratchet a bit like Magus had his hands full against Fisher (especially with TWO), his R2 match won't be the biggest of blowouts. Not much to say here... I'll cross my fingers and hope Luigi does good, for my sake and that of my bracket. Hey, I noticed a pattern. Noticed how the winner of unpredictable matches is almost ALWAYS on the losing end next round? You had Pikachu vs. Fox, Tidus vs. Ganondorf, now it's Squall vs. Jill, there'll be Kirby vs. Ramza and Knuckles vs. Yuna... heck, even Mario vs. Crono and Sephiroth vs. Megaman. Whoever wins these doesn't go any further. Expect few, if none, perfect brackets, but plenty of very high scores because of that, assuming the people involved get these last two matches correct. Oh and, ummm... it's day 5... stats could be coming any second now... --- Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 4/4 . . . . . T-1 (?-way) . . . . . 0 lost Today's pick: Jill |
| From: Notti | Posted: 7/5/2003 11:41:47 PM | Message Detail |
| And it was good. --- •~• •¦• Nottingham •~• •¦• ‡‡ "Never gonna get me. Never gonna get me. Never gonna get me I'm the..." ‡‡ http://xxx.infidels.org/~meta/getalife/ |
| From: Who Cares? | Posted: 7/6/2003 1:47:16 AM | Message Detail |
| Match 5 Well I was certainly surprised by the last outcome, not because of the victor, but because of how well he won. Squall winning this match convincingly & Tidus holding strong in his match means that FF characters could be much stronger than they were last year. This also means the Squall's next round match against Luigi could be somewhat interesting. While Jill is one of the more popular characters on the card, she is middle-tier at best, so we'll see how Squall will do against a bigger name this year as opposed last year where he got slaughtered by Solid Snake. Match 6 YAWN...wake me when it's over. No surprise here, Luigi is doing what he's supposed to be doing, not floundering in the votes one bit, hanging around 80%. Today could be one of the quietest days on the board for a while, so enjoy it while you can. :) All and all, this is just a chance to finally see what Mario's baby bro can do. As for challenging Samus...well we'll have to wait & see! |
| From: creativename | Posted: 7/6/2003 2:26:34 AM | Message Detail |
| Well, Squall's victory over Jill was the first major blow to my ranking system. And it came rather early in the tourney too. My ranking system would have predicted Jill defeating Squall comfortably. In some ways I'm disappointed, however I actually voted for Squall and hoped he'd win. The semi-upset was a pleasant surprise in that sense. Noticed how the winner of unpredictable matches is almost ALWAYS on the losing end next round? You had Pikachu vs. Fox, Tidus vs. Ganondorf, now it's Squall vs. Jill, there'll be Kirby vs. Ramza and Knuckles vs. Yuna Slowflake, you think Ramza will lose to the winner of Alucard/Bomberman? I must say that I highly doubt this. I also have Yuna defeating Snake in my bracket, though that would be an upset. And while I do understand why Snake would be favored against Yuna, I don't see Snake's victory as assured. In fact, I don't even think Knuckles vs. Yuna is hard to call...though perhaps that is just my ignorance. ... About the brackets: it looks like the tourney isn't going to have a close match for a while. KOS-MOS, Samus, Cloud, and Auron are clear-cut favorites in their matches. Bowser is probably a clear-cut favorite too, though IMO Ness will give him a small run. It looks like Sora/Aeris is the next really "intense" battle. |
| From: Jjukil | Posted: 7/6/2003 2:40:40 AM | Message Detail |
| Heh. You guys may notice something familiar on my match review pages.... ;) Sorry I've been out for so long. Very busy. Laughably busy, even. But ah well. Yeah, Jill vs. Squall was a real killer, alright. I'm happy to see Squall is more accepted by FF fans now, though--I've always liked him more than Cloud. I wonder if he'll ever catch up with him. (Probably not. =P) But at the same time, I'm sad to see my perfect first round be shot down so quickly. After my pitiful final score from last year, a perfect first round was really all I was hoping for.... >_< Anyway, I've still been collecting the poll stats, but they need some explaining again. For the first two polls, the results were frozen a short while after the poll started, but now they seem to start out frozen and update quickly until a quarter hour rolls around (11:45, 12:00, etc), at which point they're locked to 15-minute updates. Since the first few freezes are so erratic, the first one I'm including is the first one on a quarter hour. Tidus vs. Ganondorf: Polls Open: From 7-2-03 at 11:51 AM to 7-3-03 at 12:19 AM Final Results: Tidus 57078 (49.32%), Ganondorf 58660 (50.68%) Locked to 15-Minute Updates @: Midnight, 7-3-03 --Results At That Time: Tidus 684 (46.37%), Ganondorf 791 (53.63%) --Differential: 2.95% Sam vs. Magus Polls Open: From 7-4-03 at 12:24 AM to 7-4-03 at 11:32 AM Final Results: Sam 30866 (33.75%), Magus 60598 (66.25%) Locked to 15-Minute Updates @: 12:30 AM, 7-4-03 --Results At That Time: Sam 422 (30.01%), Magus 984 (69.99%) --Differential: 3.74% (Note: This isn't counting the whole glitch thing.) Squall vs. Jill Polls Open: From 7-4-03 at 11:32 AM to 7-5-03 at 11:53 AM Final Results: Squall 57392 (59.99%), Jill 38274 (40.01%) Locked to 15-Minute Updates @: 11:45 PM, 7-4-03 --Results At That Time: Squall 1195 (60.94%), Jill 766 (39.06%) --Differential: 0.95% Hmm...the erratic updates might be more interesting--the ones I saw had Tidus/Ganondorf at 60/40 for a while, and Squall/Jill at 65/35 for nearly ten minutes. I wonder if there'd be a decent way to list those.... (Sorry to put you through all this, solar. =P) --- http://members.aol.com/Jjukil GCBNN: Gamefaqs Character Battle News and Notes (Latest Update: 7-6-03) |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/6/2003 10:58:31 AM | Message Detail |
| I've been very busy as well, hence me not being around much lately. I've got the stats site updated now though. Hopefully I'll be back soon to catch up on some commentary. Sorry to put you through all this, solar. =P Not a problem. At least, it wouldn't have been if you hadn't gone and changed the formatting! ;P --- Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/6/2003 1:50:46 PM | Message Detail |
| Creativename -- I really think Ramza'll lose to Alucard. Alucard might've lost 70-30 to Cloud, but Ramza's no Cloud. BUT if he does win, that's 3 points down the crapper instead of one. Square underdogs are going to cost me a LOT (Squall already destroyed my perfect bracket). And as for Yuna, looking at Tidus' performance, I can safely say Knuckles is done for. Another Square underdog I didn't pick. But, Snake beat Aeris by a decent margin. Aeris, must I remind you, is probably THE ultimate supporting character in the contest. Yuna would have no chance against Aeris, let alone Snake. Now, i'll take a look at the three R1 matches in the East that aren't no-brainers and study the pattern I described yesterday. Bowser vs. Ness: Yoshi smokes whoever comes on top. Master Chief vs. Felix: Aeris kills the winner. Zero vs. Scorpion: Sonic beats the winner, but it probably won't be a blowout. I'd do my daily "column" now, but there was a 2% variation between when I woke up and now. I'll wait until this evening, because further variation could make me change my words on the inevitable Luigi vs. Samus. --- Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 4/5 . . . . . Position unknown . . . . . 0 lost Today's pick: Luigi |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/6/2003 4:32:52 PM | Message Detail |
| Match #6 Review Luigi is inflicting pain and suffering on Ratchet, but his percentage has been falling all day. The final result will most likely be one that will allow him to get past Squall, but as for Samus... I'll wait until she faces Isaac to judge. And, who knows? Maybe Ratchet is more popular than we thought after all. Besides, a second-tier competitor like Luigi normally can't pull blowouts of the magnitude of Megaman vs. Ms. Pac-Man or Link vs. AiAi. However, it's reasonable to think Ratchet > Servbot, so taking the Mario anti-vote into account, maybe Luigi's not so far behind Mario when it comes to the later matches. I'm not sure if Luigi is coming out of this match looking good or not, but I would be inclined to answer by the affirmative. Match #7 Preview Take Ulala, add an RPG to the belt (and one at least some people have played), some actual hotness, potential badassness, and you get a lot of added percents. Not less than the 13 needed to beat Crash, I can assure you that. I could compare Ulala to Parappa, in that both took advantage from thousands, if not tens of thousands, of anti-votes. Fox showed that any remotely well-known character can take on a hated legend and win by a heavy margin. KOS-MOS, while she probably won't do as well as Fox, will take the win anyway. --- Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 4/5 . . . . . Position unknown . . . . . 0 lost Today's pick: Luigi |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/6/2003 11:59:39 PM | Message Detail |
| Match #6 Review So, Luigi beat Ratchet. No surprise there. The question is, what does a 75% victory prove about Luigi? Big brother Mario beat Servbot in the first round last year by 74% en route to an appearance in the finals. Some have suggested that Luigi is as popular (if not moreso) than his bro. Does a convincing victory over Ratchet give credit to this theory, or should the margin have been greater? Looks to me like he's about on pace with Mario's early performance from last year, giving him a decided edge in his next battle against Squall. However, he'll have a much tougher path to the finals than Mario did, having to deal with the likes of Samus and Link before he even leaves his division. The issue of who is the "most popular Mario brother" could be the focus of his final matches before he eventually has to bow out. Match #7 Preview KOS-MOS is new this year, but Crash has done the contest thing before. Last year he scored a moderate victory over Ulala (63/37) before being destroyed by Sephiroth (82/18). This year Crash's popularity is further in decline, while KOS-MOS is a rising star who is just beginning to gain popularity. Have these two yet passed each other on the popularity scale? Maybe not overall, but on an RPG-happy site like GameFAQs, the possibility is much greater. If Ulala could manage 37%, expect KOS-MOS to do much better. I find this one hard to confidently gauge, but it looks like KOS-MOS is the clear favorite. --- Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/7/2003 12:11:58 AM | Message Detail |
| Oh, I forgot to mention there's a new poll up on the stats site. I should be changing it more often. Results of the previous polls can be viewed in the archive. --- Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: GoldSlime35 | Posted: 7/7/2003 12:22:45 AM | Message Detail |
| Last year, the first official results were posted after match 8. So starting Tuesday night, there should be something to calculate. |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/7/2003 12:35:57 AM | Message Detail |
| Ah, that's right, isn't it? I remember that Lara vs. Chop Chop was the first of what became my regular update posts. It took a long time to get those north division numbers... Should be better this year though. As long as Ceej sticks to the setup he settled on late last year. --- Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: NeoElfboy | Posted: 7/7/2003 12:48:17 AM | Message Detail |
| It took me six days to notice this topic? I suck. Anyhoo, glad to see you're doing this again, Solar. Should be fun, once CJayC actually gives you some work to do. :-P --- If you work 10 hours, you will make 80 dollars. Since you have "worst" compatibility with the government, they will reduce it to 40. -Andvareel |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/7/2003 1:00:16 AM | Message Detail |
| There you are! Welcome back. And yes, I can't wait until CJayC actually gives me some work to do. ;) --- Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: Jjukil | Posted: 7/7/2003 5:03:19 AM | Message Detail |
| Most of my thoughts on Luigi vs. Ratchet are already at the website, but there were two things I wanted to add: -Look at that Differential, down there. 9.48%. I'm not completely sure, here, but isn't that the highest "differential" this contest has ever had? I wonder if it's just a fluke occurrence or the start of a new trend.... -We now have the winners of Luigi vs. Squall and Samus vs. KOS-MOS battling in the third round. Is anyone else seeing an eerie parallel to last year's semis? Where we had the winners of Mario vs. Crono and Link vs. Sephiroth battling it out in the Finals? ...think the votes will turn out the same way? Or just the flame wars? =D Now then. Luigi vs. Ratchet Polls Open: From 7-5-03 at 11:53 PM to 7-6-03 at 11:50 PM Final Results: Luigi 70550 (74.54%), Ratchet 24099 (25.46%) Locked to 15-Minute Updates @: Midnight, 7-6-03 --Results At That Time: Luigi 715 (84.02%), Ratchet 136 (15.98%) --Differential: 9.48% No format changes today, Solar. Sorry to disappoint you. ;) And by the way, many thanks for fixing the old ones up, and for giving them a home in the first place. And for all the rest of the stat work, of course. =) --- http://members.aol.com/Jjukil GCBNN: Gamefaqs Character Battle News and Notes (Latest Update: 7-7-03) |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/7/2003 5:16:40 PM | Message Detail |
| First of all, concerning the massive shift of balance yesterday: There are much more voters this year than last year. Now, last year it was common for characters to lose a few percents throughout the day, and it happened a lot of times. However, the only one I remember clearly is Lara vs. CCMO, where Lara was over 73% at some point, and lost with 69. Now, with between 50-100% more voters, the demographics, as related to the time of the day, may have changed. There might be more morning voters (though this one actually helped Fox), and nightly voters might be more bracket-voters, since there is about half as much brackets as voters, as compared to 1/3 to 1/4 last year (remember, I'm comparing the early match-ups). Plus, they logically care more about the contest since there's money on the line. That's just possible explanations, but there can be more, or I could just be way off. But it definitely looks like the voting mechanics and patterns will be slightly different from last year, because the vote turnouts certainly are. Now, on to the usual analysis. Match #7 Review Wow, speaking of voting patterns, there is certainly one that hasn't been seen so far this year, the "boomerang" one. Crash seemed to snag percents from KOS-MOS quite quickly from the beginning of the poll to the early afternoon, then when KOS-MOS dipped below 61%, she started to recover partly. So the mysterious "morning voters" exist, and just like they've been documented to be, they're less educated than the rest and vote based on name recognition when there is only one character they know (of course, Fox should be decently well-known by now). But Crash ran out of kids, and the more educated voters took over. On to the match itself... I said yesterday that KOS-MOS would easily do 13% better than Ulala, and it's actually the double of that she's getting over the Space Channel 5 character. Of course, the tens of thousands of anti-votes are going to be nulled next round when she faces the new logical #1 contender for Link's crown. Match #8 Review This is going to be an odd, odd poll. On one hand, you have the said top contender, and on the other... a lesser-known RPG character. As shown by Aya Brea last year, these can be pests, because lesser-known characters are much more dangerous when from an RPG then when from anything else. And if Isaac does well tomorrow, there's no telling how much trouble Master Chief will have against his own opponent. Either way, Isaac and KOS-MOS can give the illusion that Samus is doing extremely bad when she doesn't. And we must take note of that, or else a victory over Link would take theoryless number-crunchers by surprise. --- Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 5/6 . . . . . Position unknown . . . . . 0 lost Today's pick: KOS-MOS |
| From: Z1mZum | Posted: 7/7/2003 5:35:33 PM | Message Detail |
| I made the dire mistake of thinking there would be MORE kids than there were to send the Bandicoot to victory. I should've picked KOS-MOS, but since I'd never played Xenosaga (I need to badly), I had to go with the character I've heard of. Now, tomorrow's match. Some think it may be close, some think it could be a slaughter. While I think Samus should take the victory, I think it is going to be closer than most people think. Isaac could be an underrated character from a fantastic game, so he could give Samus a run for her money. And SolarShadow and Jjukil are doing a fantastic job compiling all these stats. Great job! |
| From: cyko | Posted: 7/7/2003 8:55:14 PM | Message Detail |
| my thoughts- well, KOS-MOS is pretty much at about where i thought she would be right now; beating Crash Bandicoot down. but yeah, seeing how poor Jill the Kirby-killer fared against Squall worries me about Kirby's chances against Ramza. i debated that match pretty much up til june 30th, but i finally closed my eyes and picked Kirby. come on, he has own television show....*sigh* but tv shows don't save characters (see Pikachu's death). ah, well. at least we all know that Samus will whomp Isaac tomorrow. --- Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters: Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti |
| From: MMXcalibur | Posted: 7/7/2003 9:18:26 PM | Message Detail |
| If I would have came here and saw Crash winning, to be honest....I wouldn't be suprised. I thought Crash MIGHT come away with this one due to the fact KOS-MOS isn't the most well-known character. In any case, KOS-MOS sure is taking it to Crash. I think TJF plays a small, eensy weensy part in it...but not all of it. There is alot of anti-Crash sentiment out there. Whether from crappy games or the fact that nobody likes a braindead marsupial...I dunno, in any case, KOS-MOS killed Crash and we move on..... Too bad, KOS-MOS won't be saying the same after getting her digital ass handed to her by Samus. (BTW, great job solar. Website looks fantastic!) --- MEGA MAN RD. 1: vs Mr. Resetti (2)Samus Aran vs (15)Isaac (6/7 pts.) |
| From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 7/7/2003 10:18:26 PM | Message Detail |
| Something interesting I noticed when comparing 2002 contest votes per minute with 2003 contest votes per minute. http://www.geocities.com/teamrocketelite/2002vs2003Votevotes.jpg Thats a graph of the vote per minute for the 2002 Mario vs Link finals and the 2003 Tidus vs Ganondorf Round 1 match. Despite the larger number of people who sent in brackets and the larger number of voters in general, the Mario vs Link battle gets off to a faster start. http://www.geocities.com/teamrocketelite/2002vs2003VotePercentage.jpg This is a graph of the percentage of total votes submitted at any point in the day. Same battles as the one above. For the Mario vs. Link finals, 25% of the votes have been placed by 5:30am. The Ganondorf vs Tidus battle didn't reach that point until about 7:00am. --- 100 NidorinaF(Amber)/100 TangelaM(Spike)/100 HypnoM(Essence) 100 DodrioF(Tritoch)/100 ScizorM(Incision) |
| From: Who Cares? | Posted: 7/7/2003 11:41:00 PM | Message Detail |
| Match 7 This result came as a no surprise to those who were here last year. The only interesting thing about this matchup was the fabled cries of TJF rearing its ugly head again, despite Jill’s earlier loss to Squall. Crash pretty much showed that he doesn’t deserve to be back in any future GCBs after three very disappointing matches. As for KOS-MOS, this was a chance for the Xenosaga upstart to show what she’s made of. Let’s not forget, Xenosaga is a very recent game & more games of this series will be on the way. So despite Crash’s shortcomings as a mascot, to get a 61% against a very well-known character, that really says a lot about her. And if there are more GCBs in the future, then KOS-MOS’ future is looking very bright right now. Still, no one should expect her to be nothing more than a speed bump in Samus’ road, but this is more like a test to see how she stacks up against the big dogs early in her career. Quick Match 8 Preview Testing, testing, testing! That is the theme of this match. No question Samus will walk away the winner, but there two things to look for: 1. Samus' performance! While many may be thinking she needs to put up Link-esque numbers in this match, all she really needs to do is not flounder & give Luigi or Squall an opening to surprise her in the Sweet 16. 2. Issac's performance! Since Samus really doesn't have any haters, can it be assumed that those who vote for Issac will later on vote for Felix? If this is the case, the final tally could be a preview of what to expect from the Master Chief/Felix match. |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/8/2003 12:10:36 AM | Message Detail |
| Match #7 Review This is one of those matches that makes you say, "Well, I should have seen that coming." Many people were worried about this one in the bracket making phase, since it was hard to find a reason to give either character a clear advantage. But once the voting started, the outcome wasn't really a surprise, and hindsight gave us the kind of perspective that we realize we always should have had. KOS-MOS may have proven herself against a fading mascot, but it's unlikely she'll get any farther in this contest. Samus will see to that. Match #8 Review I think Slowflake summed this one up pretty well. The question isn't whether Isaac is more popular than Samus (because he isn't), but instead how popular is he compared to a Nintendo icon? Samus beat Ken, Ryu, and Sonic last year before narrowly losing to Sephiroth, so Isaac won't be a problem. Consider Samus as merely a measuring stick for Isaac. It will be interesting to see just where Isaac stands, since Golden Sun is a popular series and RPG characters typically do well at GameFAQs. But don't expect him to win. If he is a popular character, he'll lose respectably. If not, expect another blowout. --- Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/8/2003 12:15:12 AM | Message Detail |
| Err, make that Match #8 Preview. :) Sorry, I'm scrambling to get a bunch of things done in a hurry. --- Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: Mild Guy | Posted: 7/8/2003 12:30:03 AM | Message Detail |
| I'm aware that the only games on the GBA to sell in big numbers are pokemon games and Mario games. If some one knows otherwise, please tell me. I would be very surprised if a hand-held only character did well at all. Most of those games just don't sell in huge numbers (which is fine because they are cheaper to make), so I don't expect any real support for golden sun characters. They're easy to overestimate is what I'm trying to say. We'll find out soon if I'm wrong though... --- "The Many Men, So Beautiful And They All Dead Did Lie, And A Thousand Thousand Slimy Things Lived On And So Did I." |
| From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 7/8/2003 12:58:44 AM | Message Detail |
| Actually, Golden Sun IS one of those high selling games. It's also pretty high profile among GBA owners. Considering GBA owners outnumber XBox owners 2 to 1... --- 100 NidorinaF(Amber)/100 TangelaM(Spike)/100 HypnoM(Essence) 100 DodrioF(Tritoch)/100 ScizorM(Incision) |
| From: Jjukil | Posted: 7/8/2003 2:58:03 AM | Message Detail |
| Argh. This message was originally longer, I think, but then it got closed or something. Ah well. Slowflake--I think the boomerang pattern has showed up before, actually, but it may have been to a higher degree this time. Sonic/Samus and Aya/DK both had the same kind of thing happen--the mascot took the lead in the morning, but the "cooler" character recovered as the day went on. But this pattern seems to include FF characters as well; Tidus did the same thing to Ganondorf, after all, and Sephiroth built up his lead over Mega Man in the morning (though Mega never came back). So I don't know if it should really be called a "kiddie vote"...but there is a morning vote sometimes, if only a small one. I never meant to imply that with my commentaries, if I have. Kos-Mos/Crash: Not much to say, really. I even had a hard time filling out the commentary. =P Kos-Mos didn't impress, so she'll still probably go down to Samus next round. And, unfortunately, the Ratchet Rebound didn't make a reappearance. It may never show up again...but it would sure be cool if it did. =) Poll Stats follow: Crash vs. Kos-Mos Polls Open: From 7-6-03 at 11:50 PM to 7-6-03 at 11:35 PM Final Results: Kos-Mos 61141 (61.98%), Crash 37510 (38.02%) Locked to 15-Minute Updates @: Midnight, 7-7-03 --Results At That Time: Kos-Mos 1228 (64.56%), Crash 674 (35.44%) --Differential: 2.58% No format changes again, but there is one small thing: in polls 3-5, I referred to 11:__ PM as 11:__ AM. Those should probably be switched out. ...please don't hit me. >_<; --- http://members.aol.com/Jjukil GCBNN: Gamefaqs Character Battle News and Notes (Latest Update: 7-7-03) |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/8/2003 5:02:34 PM | Message Detail |
| I was talking about this year, Jjukil (not counting Tidus vs. Ganondorf, close matches defy all logic). Well, anyway, new evening, new post. Match #8 Review Once again, the leader's score gradually sled throughout the day, for the 4th time in the last 5 days (the other being Squall vs. Jill). Kudos to whoever said Samus doesn't need to score the signature Link/Megaman blowout. Because Isaac actually seems quite popular... GS:TLA is 4th in the GBA FAQ rankings, behind Pokémon R/S and the MM Battle networks. This is just to say, Isaac's no Ratchet, and especially no AiAi. And we must remember that Samus didn't pull stunning numbers against Ken Masters, yet she made it to the division finals where she could have taken the cake had she not been shrouded in controversy (IMO her match against Sephiroth was the only one where anti-votes mattered at all). So good job. See you next mission! ;) Match #9 Preview (Okay, now I put the P in Preview, so if Solar wants to do a copy/paste job, he won't make the same mistake.) <stonecold>BOOOOOOOOORIIIIIIIIING!</stonecold> Sadly, as if CATS really needed an even stronger opponent than last year. And he gets the second (third?) biggest Square name as his opponent. The only question is... will CATS fare any better than AiAi? I doubt it, since his percentage was already microscopic against Ryu. But, a point of interest here is... the vote turnout for this match. Right after Cloud vs. Alucard, the matches with the three biggest vote counts all had something in common... Cloud. And the match that set the record last year, and that remains unbeaten this year (or by any PotD for that matter) is Cloud vs. Mario. Also note that his matches against Fox, Pikachu and obviously Mario had the biggest vote counts for their respective rounds. This alone tells how much support Cloud has. He'll need it to beat Yoshi and whoever comes out on top of the bottom half, most likely Sonic. --- Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 6/7 . . . . . Position unknown . . . . . 0 lost Today's pick: Samus |
| From: MMXcalibur | Posted: 7/8/2003 7:35:58 PM | Message Detail |
| Well, as predicted by many....Samus blasted Isaac out of the water. Is this as impressive as Link's crushing blow to Aiai? How does she compare to Link when the two quite possibly meet in the Northern Div. finals? Eh.....not THAT bad. "Not THAT bad? NOT THAT BAD? WHAT THE HELL DOES THAT MEAN?" Hold on...I'll tell you.... Isaac is no slouch as a 15 seed by any means, but if he can muster 20,000+ off of Samus....things might be looking grim down the road for Samus. But HEY!, it's early and we still have 2 more rounds before we can get a REAL good feel on Link vs Samus. Even with this okay showing vs Isaac, Samus can do wonders, just ask Sonic. And when Link and Samus go toe to toe, we will hear a TON about LoZ:LttP vs Super Metroid or Wind Waker vs Metroid Prime..etc. Basically, IMO, I think the two character's GAMES should be in the forefront that round. As for KOS-MOS vs Samus..... If KOS-MOS thinks Crash was tough, well......I think I spelled out her impending doom with the words "Crash" and "tough" so close together...... --- MEGA MAN RD. 1: vs Mr. Resetti (1)Cloud vs (16)CATS (7/8 pts.) |
| From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/8/2003 8:04:28 PM | Message Detail |
| Ugh, I miss a day or two and my Samberdog Says topic gets purged. I guess I can just incorporate all that into this topic instead. Sorry I've been gone so long. Anyway, Match #5 - Squall VS Jill - Review I'm sure that when we get the numbers, this match will have been the toughest to predict for the North Division. I got this one wrong, and most posters in the Samberdog Says topics predicted Jill as well. But Squall wins convincingly, it seems he's in better shape than he was last year, while Jill wasn't quite as popular as we had predicted. Though he makes it to the second round, Squall will be hard pressed to beat Luigi. I still don't think he has the appeal to beat a Nintendo icon. With Squall's win, and Tidus's strong performance, it looks like Square characters are doing better than they were last year. It may be a bit early to know if that's true or not, but I'm glad that I decided to change my Yuna/Knuckles pick to Yuna at the last minute. Looking at Jill's rather poor performance, some have raised doubts to whether Kirby is as strong as we thought he had been. If Squall > Jill > Kirby... then things begin to look bleak for him as he nears his matchup with Ramza. Oh darn... I have to go, but I'll get more caught up later tonight. Go CATS! --- Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II" Current Record: 6-1 / 6 points won / 1 point lost |
| From: Rodri316 | Posted: 7/8/2003 8:15:24 PM | Message Detail |
| My review on the Samus Aran vs. Isaac match... I believe looking at this match's outcome is not exactly the best giveaway for future results on Samus Aran's and Felix's matches, due to the fact that two Nintendo characters were going against each other. However, I do believe that Samus's performance didn't disappoint, since we can't overlook the fact that Isaac is the star of a game that, though released for Gameboy Advance, is an RPG. I expected most RPG fans (and we know there's definitely not a shortage of them here on GameFAQs) who haven't had the pleasure of playing as either of these characters to back Isaac up, being an RPG character and all. For that reason, I just couldn't see Isaac getting less than 20-25%. However, the fact remained that the Nintendo vote would be split (although, of course, much more leaning towards the heroine of the Metroid series), and I imagined that would add up quite a few extra votes for Isaac. But Samus Aran, even while having the RPG supporters against her, proved to be extremely popular among Nintendo fans and more than Isaac among those non-RPG fans who didn't play either game, achieving a good 75% of the votes, more or less. Things are looking good for Samus in the future, although we've yet to see her fare against a Squaresoft character. Unfortunately, this day may not come in this Contest, since Luigi and Link are on her way, and I don't think she'll make it past the latter. However, KOS-MOS vs. Samus Aran will probably be her only non-Nintendo competitor, which should be interesting, since I'm guessing most of the PS2 and Squaresoft/RPG supporters will back the android up. How does this affect my prediction on Master Chief vs. Felix? Isaac's victory doesn't help a lot to clear up the fog that makes this match so unpredictable. Although the RPG support should go to Felix, Isaac did only get 25% against Samus. Also, a lot more people played Golden Sun than Golden Sun: The Lost Age. However, Samus, I infer, is a lot more popular than Master Chief, who will also have a lot of the anti-Xbox voters picking on him. Samus Aran vs. Isaac didn't help much on predicting the outcome of future related matches, but one thing's for sure: Samus Aran's victory was large enough to clear my doubts that she will be a tough rival to whoever faces her in this contest. --- Summer 2003 Contest -- 7 out of 7 points Prediction on Current Match: Samus Aran vs. Isaac |
| From: NT220 | Posted: 7/8/2003 11:51:36 PM | Message Detail |
| Well, I think I may as well start doing this also: Samus vs. Isaac Isaac is decently popular, as 15th seeds go (compared to, oh, Mr. Resetti...), and before the contest some people even predicted that he could pull an upset based on Golden Sun's popularity on GameFAQs. As Pikachu showed, though, game popularity =/= character popularity, particularly on a handheld. Most people have heard of Golden Sun, but relatively few have heard of Isaac, and his relatively average design (someone remarked that he looks like Sora's little brother) and lack of development sinks him against Nintendo's classic heroine. Samus's 75-25 vote margin seems modest when compared to Link's blowout, but Isaac is certainly no AiAi. Golden Sun is a lot more mainstream compared to the cult-favorite Monkey Ball games, and Isaac at least has some RPG fans backing him up. Also, Link and AiAi are both relatively cutsey characters (at least, Link's picture this time around is), while Samus and Isaac have quite different design styles. Sword-wielding, spikey-haired Isaac just might appeal to the anime fans which frequent this site. We must also remember that Samus does have the tendency to rise to the occasion; despite unimpressive victories over the fading Ken Masters and Ryu last year, she still eked out an ultra-close victory over Sonic and was able to hold her own against Sephiroth. I won't doubt that her support will grow this year in a similar fashion. What does this say about the Chief vs. Felix match, then? Well, not too much. Isaac was neither the sacrificial lamb nor the surprising loser this time, so Golden Sun's popularity remains as difficult to gauge as ever. Chief is certainly no Samus, but Felix probably isn't as well-known as Isaac, either (take me; I knew who Isaac was before the contest, but the only Felix familiar to me was the cat.) XBox haters are on the ebb, but RPG fans are on the rise. Either way this match is going to be close, though I stand by my bracket and say that Chief barely squeaks by. I have to say, though, that if even a match versus Felix is getting so much hype, I sincerely pity those people who put Chief to win over Aeris... Samus vs. KOS-MOS By the numbers, the android's victory over Crash is impressive, but realistically Crash is a failed mascot (even Spyro probably has more support) who is popular in neither Nintendo nor Sony circles. KOS-MOS's picture could net her some votes, but I doubt anyone truly expects her to beat Samus. Xenosaga is still relatively unknown outside of RPG gamer circles, and KOS-MOS isn't even the main character. This is, however, likely going to be Samus's only non-Nintendo match, and it might be a nice indicator of how she's going to fare against Luigi. As I said, KOS has the pic advantage and RPG support, though how much of the latter she's going to retain against one of the contest's giants is doubtful. It's also difficult to say how much Square support she'll get. Overall, I say Samus wins easily with between 70% and 80% of the vote. Cloud vs. CATS Two words: Hah. Next. --- "The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin |
| From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/9/2003 12:02:47 AM | Message Detail |
| Match #6 - Luigi VS Ratchet - Review Luigi, as expected, decimates Ratchet. I don't think anybody didn't see this coming, so it's good to see everyone's bracket get back on track after Squall/Jill. As Jjukil pointed out, the vote differential is very high. I have no idea what the reason for this is, but it's still quite interesting. Of course it's hard to tell how much it really means, because even though Ratchet gained percentage, he certainly didn't gain votes. Luigi did very well for himself - 70 000+ votes is never something to sneer at. I think he'll be able to defeat Squall, though not nearly as easily as he did Ratchet. The only question now is to see whether he'll have what it takes to defeat another big Nintendo name, Samus, in the third round. What else can we learn from this match? Mario will most likely have as easy a time as Luigi getting to the third round - though things after that start getting tricky. It's pretty difficult to gage whether Luigi is more popular than his older brother right now. I suppose we'll have to wait for Mario's debut in a week or two. Match #7 - KOS-MOS VS Crash - Review This match was tricky to predict at first, I waffled between the two until the (general) reassurance of the board championed KOS-MOS. It seems that most posters who are taking this contest seriously predicted this correctly. Crash is just too old and lame to be considered anything more than fodder now. KOS-MOS did alright, but she's not from a mainstream Square RPG, so she has now real popularity on this site. Samus will make short work of her next round. Snowflake said that a relatively well known character can take on a hated legend. After these results I feel even more confident that Lara will lose her first round match. Match #8 - Samus VS Isaac - Current This match is just about ready to wrap up, even though it was over before it even began. I will post more later. Match #9 - Cloud VS CATS - Preview Cloud will win, although the board support for CATS has been hilariously annoying. Silly me, I actually gave into the CATS hooplah last year and put him over Ryu :(. --- Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II" Current Record: 6-1 / 6 points won / 1 point lost |
| From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/9/2003 1:16:32 AM | Message Detail |
| Okay, now I put the P in Preview, so if Solar wants to do a copy/paste job, he won't make the same mistake. Lol. I am so busted. :P When I noticed the mistake I thought, "Wait, that can't be, I copied it from..." and then proceeded to curse the name of Slowflake. Well, okay, I wasn't that dramatic about it. ;) But in order to make sure there are no mistakes this time, I'm just going to skip the preview altogether. Man, there's so much I want to reply to in this topic, and I know I'm just not going to have time for any of it. :( Match #8 Review The north is really heating up now that all of the second round matches are set. But there's still a lot left to prove. We already know that Link is the favorite, we know that Magus could be a darkhorse, and we know that Luigi has some spoiler potential. But what does this match tell us about Samus? Is she a force to be reckoned with? She managed to get 75% of the vote in her match, which is just slightly more than what Luigi pulled in. And I think it's fair to say that Isaac was a much stronger opponent than Ratchet. Which implies, on the surface at least, that Samus would have the edge if those two were to meet (although when two Nintendo icons meet, anything could happen). Beyond that, I don't yet get the impression that she's ready for Link. A big victory against Isaac, but not big enough to legitimize her as a real threat toward Link's crown. Maybe the second round will give us a clearer idea of how she stacks up against the remaining characters. Also, I made a graph for you guys, but I guess I won't get that posted until tomorrow. Oh, and about the poll on the stats site, there aren't really 7 of you who think Cloud vs. CATS was a tough call, are there? I'm not surprised that Zero vs. Scorpion is leading, but I am surprised that Master Chief vs. Felix isn't far behind. Perhaps Master Chief won't win easily like some of us think? --- Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com |
| From: GunMage | Posted: 7/9/2003 5:13:11 PM | Message Detail |
| Hey, solarshadow! Your sites are sick, and I mean that in a very high praise way. Now, for some very amateur analysis. (I don't even have an entry.) Cloud vs. CATS Review Well, CATS did get more votes than AiAi, but I'm not too sure if Cloud will beat Link's first round total. It's getting pretty close. Other than that, looks like another slaughter fic in the queue... Auron vs. Tails Preview Speaking of slaughters ^_^. Since Auron is considered cooler than Tidus, and Ganondorf is definitely cooler than Tails, do the math. My prediction: 70-30 Auron. Sorry, Tails. You lose in the first round again. --- Who says magic users can't use guns? Best of both worlds, I say. (GCB Fanfiction: http://s2.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=8835220) |
| From: cyko | Posted: 7/9/2003 5:18:57 PM | Message Detail |
| cyko's Match 9 Review Cloud vs. CATS okay, i know it's only 5:00, but Cloud is already up by 60,000 votes. he is on pace to break 90,000 votes and may even break Link's record. CATS might pull in another 2000- 3000 votes, but that's about it. nobody is surprised by this one. but if Cloud does beat Link's total does that mean that he can take Link down in the final four? maybe.... cyko's Match 10 Preview Auron vs. Tails this match might be interesting. Auron is a more popular final fantasy x character than Tidus, so he should be able to pull in as many votes as Tidus did against Ganondorf, maybe even a little more. so the question is, can Tails get as much support as Ganondorf? i seriously doubt it. Tails did put up very good numbers against Alucard last year, but i don't think it will be enough to get past Auron. i predict Auron will win with about 60%-65% of the vote. --- Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters: Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti |
| From: GunMage | Posted: 7/9/2003 5:25:18 PM | Message Detail |
| Incidentally, solarshadow, do you happen to have anything about that odd Bonus Poll of the Day? That was pretty humiliating for Isaac, losing to that as well. AiAi, Ratchet, and most likely CATS join him in the "beaten by a poll" category. Any thoughts? --- Who says magic users can't use guns? Best of both worlds, I say. (GCB Fanfiction: http://s2.cgi.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.asp?board=8&topic=8835220) |
| From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/9/2003 5:28:06 PM | Message Detail |
| Match #9 Review Forget about the Ratchet comeback, Cloud is where it's at. The absurd beginning of the poll seems to confirm the theory I posted a few weeks ago that the most motivated voters, especially bracket-voters, vote first. And since CATS, despite having only a small host of fans (and unfortunately for FF fans, all coming from the board), has the most dedicated one, we managed to send a chill down the spine of Cloud fans everywhere. Looking at the topics posted near the beginning of the poll, it seems we even made them think Auron would pizzown Cloud next round. Not gonna happen, sorry. But the few minutes where CATS was actually leading this poll were IMO the absolute best moment in GCB history. Two Sam Fishers? Cloud WOOPS Pikachu? All forgotten. Match #10 Preview Instead of talking about why Auron will beat Tails, I'll explain why Tails won't beat Auron. Back in the day, Tails' popularity would have puzzled many a hardcore RPG fanboy. "HIS CHARTER IS TEH DUM!eleven!1!!1!exclamation point!" But what they fail to understand is that people who get a kick out of playing a certain character (or even going against him, in some villains' cases) developed a bond with that character. This, obviously, goes for mute RPG heroes like Crono. That's where characters such as Cloud suffer: the players can't associate with them as much, since they don't get in their skin nearly as much. Tails, of course, belongs to the first category. The experience of gameplay he offered me and, obviously, many other Sonic fans, gave him even more than the sole underdog support Luigi has. His totally different, and often better, abilities, entertained many. I remember, when I was a child, playing with Tails and smacking poor Eggman because he couldn't land a hit on me. I still do it sometimes with the Mega Collection, and at 19 years of age I still get a kick out of it. (I'll admit it, I am a nostalgic gamer.)Let's put it this way... not only did he get out of the shadow, he made a name for himself and might just have surpassed Sonic in popularity. But the big problem with Tails is... that was then. This is now. The Sonic series has gone downhill since its golden days, and so did Tails. The Sonic Adventure series were intended as a shot to the arm to the franchise... but while the games sold well, in Tails' case the arm started bleeding with SA1. Some people hated the voice acting and the character they gave him (personally, I think the voice suits him rather well actually). But the small bleeding became a hemorragy with SA2. This time, it wasn't minor details such as the voice acting and the character. They hit the very essence of Tails, the gameplay. They had stuck him in a mech! This got many fans angry, and now Tails looks as the weakest link of the main Sonic cast. Things couldn't get worse from the contest point of view... oh wait, they sure could! Now Tails is taking on Auron, many FF fans' favorite FF10 character. Some of them even go as far as ranking Auron higher than Sephiroth himself on the badassness scale. And seeing what HATED FF characters such as Squall and Tidus did, this match is set to be a slugfest. Whoa, that was long. --- Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 7/8 . . . . . Position unknown . . . . . 0 lost Today's pick: Cloud |
| From: Terran | Posted: 7/9/2003 6:07:00 PM | Message Detail |
| *hopes no one minds if I write one of these too...* Match 9 Review: Last year, Cloud vs. Opponent matches seemed to attract some of the most votes round in and round out (not just Cloud vs. Mario either. Cloud vs. Fox recorded the most votes out of any first round match, Cloud vs. Pikachu the most votes out of any second round match, and ofcourse Cloud vs. Mario was the top match vote-wise in last years competition). Cloud vs. CATS seems to be contiuning this trend. Cloud might get to 100,000 while CATS could still get close to 20,000 votes, where as Link got nearly 100,000 votes while AiAi only got roughly 8,000. This high turnout for Cloud-related polls probably means that Cloud is one of the more controversal characters in this tournament. Like him or not chances are you want to vote in a poll involving him. Match 10 Preview: The Sonic series doesn't seem to have the popularity it once did and I expect Auron to beat Tails by a significant margin. I think alot of the people expecting Auron to put up a fight against Cloud will be suprised, and probably even discouraged by Tails if he earns 35-40% of the vote, but I believe this is to be expected (I also expect Cloud to beat Auron but that's another story). --- Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony! Bracket Points/Rec: 8 out of 8/8-0 (100%) Picked: Cloud |
| From: StopPokingMe | Posted: 7/9/2003 8:10:30 PM | Message Detail |
| I'm not smart enough to do a bunch at once, so I'll stick with one upcoming match that, IMO, isn't getting the attention it deserves: Squall vs. Luigi. Everyone seems to blow off Squall as fodder in the Nintendo division, but I see two ways to look at this match: 1) FF's "black sheep" against the lovable downtrodden sidekick everyone empathizes with (to the extent that anyone can empathize with a Mario brother). This is the way you all seem to see it, and I'll admit Luigi's thrashing of Ratchet and Squall's (comparatively) lackluster victory over Jill make it look good. 2) The poor man's Mario vs. the poor man's Cloud. I can imagine the vote being torn right down company/genre/appearance lines here -- it seems like a stretch to me to say that there are numerous voters whose preference is Cloud > Mario > Squall, or that Mario =/= Luigi when not facing each other. Ratchet wasn't a very good measure of Luigi's potential, I don't think, being a platformer star in his own right. He is a subject in the land where bro Mario is king. I just can't believe Luigi will recieve every single vote he got in round 1 again in round 2, now that the opposition is human-looking, blade-wielding, developed, and carries that "Made by Squaresoft" stamp on his butt. OTOH, Jill's fanbase (fans whose primary loyalties are to RE, Capcom, survival-horror, or good-looking women) doesn't strike me as the type that would swing in large numbers one way or the other here predictably, except for the handful of anti-Squall votes. Perhaps they would even be more inclined to vote for Squall for his more realistic character design? I doubt it would be easy to say "Squall will not get a single vote in round 2 that he didn't in round 1." It looks to be an interesting match... and a FF opponent in round 3 could cause Samus fits, even later on if she beats him. --- "You think you're right, but you know you're wrong." -- My friend, master debater |
| From: Who Cares? | Posted: 7/9/2003 11:55:40 PM | Message Detail |
| Match 9 About the only interesting part about this match was that, for a brief moment, CATS held a lead over Cloud. For about the first two hours, there were non-stop topics from the CATS Army about screenshots of that actual moment, which peeved of a few Cloud fans! But as the day progressed, things settled down, and it became just another dull match. However, Cloud’s performance was anything but dull. Picking up 94K votes in his first match really set the bar in the East division. And looking at the division from top to bottom, Sonic could be the only character that could stop him from reaching the Final Four. (Since we can assume Cloud > Aeris) But time will tell. Match 10 Preview In this user’s opinion, this match is actually a Knuckles/Yuna preview in disguise. Forget what you saw in Squall’s & Tidus’ matches, this will be a more accurate gauge since both matches will feature a FFX character vs a Sonic sub-character. We all know that Knux > Tails, but the question that still needs to be answered is: Yuna => Auron? While I think Auron will walk away the victor, the outcome will play a big role in who wins the later matchup. Consider these scenarios if you will: Tails wins: If Yuna isn’t significantly more popular than Auron, Knux walks away easily. Auron wins close: Again, if Yuna isn’t significantly more popular, this match once again becomes a Toss Up. Auron wins by decent margin: Yuna will most likely come out the victor Auron wins by blowout: Yuna wins, period! |
| From: EvilNcr | Posted: 7/10/2003 12:11:38 AM | Message Detail |
| It does look like Auron's performance will be an impressive 65-35. What does this say about his chances against Cloud if he maintains this? It shall be close, quite close.. but I'm fairly confident people expecting a possible close match will pick cloud for their brackets and pull him ahead. Also, this will set up expectations to see yuna performance a bit weaker than auron. Knuckles > tails maybe... but it doesn't exactly mean knuckles > yuna. It will be pretty damn close and hard to call. At least, she doesn't have the hatred fanbase tidus got and that's already that. By the way, Knuckles wasn't hatred and didn't get anti-votes and that's my guess why he outperformed squall against snake. Sega's popularity is slowly fading.. and FFX's one jumped... but damn.. it's still gonna be pretty damn close. --- The Reaper is always a step behind you ncr... |
| From: NT220 | Posted: 7/10/2003 12:32:02 AM | Message Detail |
| I was just about to hit the Post button when my computer came up with a blue screen of death. The one time I didn't type this out in Notepad first... >_< Cloud vs. CATS For thirty glorious seconds, CATS was in the lead and the board went crazy. Then, as Jjukil said, the next hundred votes came in :-). Well, this quickly turned out to be a routine slaughter, except for the slightly interesting fact that Cloud managed to beat Link's record for biggest vote-getter. Of course, this was mainly by dint of his match getting nearly 10,000 more votes than Link's. CATS managed to lose a lot more gracefully than AiAi did, breaking both the ten percent and the ten thousand mark, no doubt thanks to the noble efforts of the CATS army. So does this blowout mean that Cloud will have a better chance in his likely semifinal showdown with Link? Sorry, but I'll have to say no. Cloud did get more votes against Link against a similarly scrubby opponent, but his match also got a lot more votes, period. Link had to contend with the fact that first matches are usually the most lackluster when it comes to vote totals (remember Mario beating Servbot with just 30,000 votes?) Also, CATS is not a good measuring stick for anybody, with stuff like the CATS army, the constant all your base jokes, and the fact that practically no one outside of the regulars know who he is making it simply impossible to gauge stuff like anti-votes. In fact, giving up 14,000 votes against CATS might even be cause of worry for Cloud - but as I said, I'm not going to take anything about this match seriously. Oh yeah, and I voted CATS, just for a laugh. See what I mean about not taking anything about this match seriously? Auron vs. Tails A half-hour before the match started, I had a nice little preview typed up on how Auron will win and it probably won't be that close. One blue screen of death later, that is now irrelevant. So would you believe me if I said that I knew this was coming all along? :-) --- "The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin |
| From: ragnarok757 | Posted: 7/10/2003 2:22:57 AM | Message Detail |
| Match 10 Disucssion With Auron in the midst of a very significant victory, close to a 2/3 majority, it seems clear that the Sonic sidekicks don't bring along nearly as much support as Sonic himself. But Auron's prospects for the future don't look too bright; the internecine Final Fantasy conflict that looms against Cloud seems out of reach, especially considering Cloud's thorough dismantling of CATS. I think the loyal FF fans will stick with their most popular hero. Frankly, I don't think that "sidekick" characters have much of a chance in this contest; fans seem to rally around the icon, but the lesser figure can't ride those coattails. Certainly I don't think Knuckles vs. Yuna will differ much from this matchup, since the same fanbases should vote much the same way. The bigger questions are Luigi and Zero, two sidekicks that have sorta-kinda developed an image of their own. This match eases my fears about Luigi upsetting Samus; I don't think he has that kind of firepower. It also makes me question the idea that Megaman's fanbase will support Zero, and makes me a little more confident in my pick of Scorpion in that match. Certainly, it seems, Zero in any event will probably not have the capability to beat Sonic if they go against each other. --- What you own ends up owning you. |
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