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Summer 2003 Contest

Stats & Discussion - Summer 2003 Contest

From: King Morgoth | Posted: 7/23/2003 12:46:20 AM | Message Detail

I've been collecting stats for a few matches now and I think they are ready to be released.
I have made tables showing the correct prediction percentage based on what was the entrants' score before each match, if enough data was made available (I need the score distribution both before and after a match to calculate the percentages, and CJayC has missed a couple of updates so some matches are missing)
Enough confused talk, on with the stats and some fast analysis.
The stats page that I will update nightly is right there:

http://www.geocities.com/kingmorgoth

Match #12 - Yoshi vs Conker
At first, I thought that all matches would pretty much look the same, with the elite being 10-15% more accurate than the average, and the rest of the entrants being less and less accurate as their scores were going down.
Not at all. The top five groups were all equally accurate ±1%, which was quite surprising IMO

Match #13 - Sora vs Aeris Gainsborough
This match looked exactly as I thought they would all look like, where higher scores had higher accuracy. Nice comeback by the 3's who scored better than both the 4's, 5's and 6's

Match #16 - Sonic the Hedgehog vs Ken
After CJayC's 2 days break, I finally had new stats to collect. Surprisingly (am I the only one who's surprised by such results? I hope not), everyone seemed to be equally accurate, pretty much like in Match #13

Match #17 - Mario vs Captain Olimar
Everyone is pretty near 100%, no surprises here

Match #18 - Wario vs Shadow the Hedgehog
This is where things get weird. This match was such an upset that the group with the lowest accuracy of the entire scoreboard was....the perfects!!! Scoring a sad 33,62%, every other group has been more accurate than them, if we exclude our perfect zeros.

Match #19 - Pac-Man vs Kefka
The perfects managed to be two times as accurate as the average in what is, IMO surprisingly, a prediction upset. The top brackets had, in majority, Kefka winning, while the lower brackets mostly had Pac-Man winning

Match #22 - Kirby vs Ramza Beoulve
The masses are coming back! While the elite scored a 60-70% accuracy, the average brackets all scored 85-93% of their possible points! The elite had seen Kefka's victory coming, but it seems that this time, being "average" was a good thing!

Finally, nice work Solar and everyone else who's been making this topic one if not the most interesting, useful and sane place to stay on this board!
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"Everything gold does not glitter, Not all those who wander are lost"
Current Points: 18/20

From: NT220 | Posted: 7/23/2003 5:00:49 AM | Message Detail

Kirby vs. Ramza

To be honest, I didn't give this match much thought when I was choosing my own bracket. Sure, it wasn't a totally brainless decision, but it certainly didn't keep me agonizing for days like Tidus vs. Ganondorf and Yuna vs. Knuckles did. Hell, I had more trouble deciding who would win between Kirby and Alucard than deciding on this one.

So I was actually pretty surprised that this became one of the most hyped first-round matches even before the contest. Initially in the analysis topics the commentators were split pretty evenly between favoring Ramza and Kirby, but when the contest started and Tidus lost by an extremely narrow margin to Ganondorf, the scale began distinctively tippint in favor of Ramza. Then came Jill's loss to Squall, and practically everyone was convinced that Ramza will win. Hell, I was convinced and had regarded it a lost point before the North division even ended!

With the benefit of hindsight, though, I shouldn't have been so easily convinced. The main rationale for Ramza winning was that Jill > Kirby last year, Squall > Jill this year, and that Ramza is at least equal to Squall. Therefore, Ramza > Jill > Kirby.

The problem is that Jill this year has nowhere near the popularity of Jill last year. REmake was probably the most hyped release of early 2001, its FAQ page being the most visited on GameFAQs for several weeks. Even better for Jill, it happened to be on the GCN, therefore taking valuable Nintendo votes from Kirby. This year, on the other hand, Resident Evil's popularity is on the downturn. The recent games were quite lackluster, and we know nearly as little about RE4 as we did last year. When Jill faced Kirby, it was Jill who performed strongly, not Kirby who performed weakly.

So Kirby vs. Ramza... From what I've heard, Ramza probably isn't even the most memorable character in FFT - that would be Delita or maybe Orlandu (the latter for battle prowess rather than genuine character development, but meh). Also, more importantly, Kirby isn't quite popular enough to generate anti-votes - but definitely popular enough to get most of the Nintendo vote. Ramza isn't well-known enough to sway Nintendo voters, as FFT was PlayStation-only and FFT Advance is still quite far on the horizon. For the casual voter, Ramza is a generic guy with no nose, lacking both anime-ish coolness and realistic badassness (ugh, can't believe I actually typed that word). Kirby may be distinctively kiddy, but at least he's memorable. Ramza was able to secure the Square vote, but that didn't turn out to be enough.

Interestingly, this wasn't anything near an upset for the casual voter, as more than four-fifth of brackets correctly had Kirby winning. That, coupled with Kefka's win actually being an upset according the the brackets, seriously makes me question the so-called Square support outside of FF7~10 and Crono (yes, Crono. Not Chrono Trigger).
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"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/23/2003 6:08:15 AM | Message Detail

Why not Magus? He did as well against Sam Fisher as Crono did against Dante, and the approximate equality of these two opponents isn't too far-fetched.

And I just looked at the stats... 37% had Bomberman winning his match! WTF?
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 19/21, 0 lost . . . . . T-347 (1071-way)
Today's pick: Max

From: NT220 | Posted: 7/23/2003 7:47:45 AM | Message Detail

I say that mainly because less than 60% of brackets had Magus beating Sam - that is, in the minds of the general populace, Fox over Pikachu is less of an upset. This suggests that relatively few people know who Magus is - on this board, at least, Magus over Sam is a complete no-brainer.

Magus's 2:1 ratio against Sam doesn't really impress me. Aeris, Auron, and Alucard (heh, the three A's) all posted similar numbers against similar opponents - you could say that Aeris's margin over Sora was due to the double-Square factor, but there is no way I'm going to accept that Sam is more popular than Tails. Bomberman is probably slightly scrubbier than Sam, but he's not too far off.

Crono did post a similar margin against Dante, but the Crono fanboy train didn't start gathering last year until his match against Lara. I still think Magus will beat Ganondorf, but I don't think the margin is going to be high. I definitely don't view him as a threat to Link as I did before.

I must say, though, that Vercetti and Zero worry me. Vercetti could bomb out against DK in round 2 (extremely unlikely, but DK will have the entire Nintendo vote at his side) or go all the way up to Mario/Crono/Sephiroth in the semis. Zero... if he knocks off Sonic, my bracket will be in shambles as I have Sonic going to the quarters.
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"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin

From: NT220 | Posted: 7/23/2003 7:51:13 AM | Message Detail

Ugh, my Kirby vs. Ramza analysis had tons of errors. "Tippint" in the third line of the second paragraph should be "tipping", and REmake was one of the most hyped releases of 2002, not 2001.
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"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/23/2003 4:54:50 PM | Message Detail

Personally, I don't go with the picks to determine whether a character is good or not, but with the polls themselves. Going by your logic, Morrigan was weak-ass last year, yet she smashed Spyro more than 70-30, and only 42% of the entrants had it correct. Plus, she got a third of the vote against Mario...

I'm curious... when you refer to the "Crono fanboy train", do you only think of this board? Because at least 75% of the voters don't come here. So I don't think it has much of an impact.

As for Tails, I have no problem seeing him less popular than Fisher, since not only is Tails not cool anymore and way past his prime, unlike Sonic and Knuckles, but his role in SA2 turned many people away from him.

Match #23 Review

Despite the results, I still stand by my belief that a game won't have any impact until it's released, and I could even say it takes some time after that. The hype surrounding SMS didn't exactly help Mario last year, as it took the infamous PGC intervention to take down Cloud, and the incredible stupidity of a Crono cheater to get past Crono. Therefore, I agree with the guy who said on another topic that Gordon would have this match in the pocket had the match occured after HL2's release.

What does it say about Max Payne? That he's below TINA FREAKIN' ARMSTRONG in popularity. Of course, when nobody cares about the characters, the influence of TJF is arguably greater. But when you can only count on the jugs to win... Granted, Max scored a blowout against Dirk last year, but hey, it's Dirk. (Kirby was ranked below THAT? WTF?) Now that he faces a semi-half-decent character (and maybe that's STILL too generous), we see what he's worth... nothing. No wonder the margin of victory is so slim.

Match #24 Preview

No top-tier character is getting a bye as big as Sephiroth this year. First in line is Raziel, who lost to Strider in the closest match of round 1 last year, and Strider got wasted by Link. Take someone just below Link and someone just below Strider, and you should get about the same results. However, the top characters seem to crush their competition by even more than last year... if this trend maintains, Raziel could fail to gather 20% of the vote. My prediction would be Sephiroth, 82-18.
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Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 20/22, 0 lost . . . . . T-347 (1071-way)
Today's pick: Max

From: creativename | Posted: 7/23/2003 8:03:12 PM | Message Detail

King Morgoth,
I'd just like to say that your stats are THE #1 most interesting thing I've seen in this entire thread. I was thinking of doing the same thing a few days ago, but since I didn't have the stats from the beginning I decided against it; plus, I was a little lazy about it. Big-time kudos to you on this. Great, great stuff. Hope you have the time to keep it up.

I say that mainly because less than 60% of brackets had Magus beating Sam - that is, in the minds of the general populace, Fox over Pikachu is less of an upset.

You seem to forget that few of the brackets had Crono going anywhere last year either. Most probably had him being ousted by Lara, and certainly very few had him beating Snake.

Character support cannot be gauged properly by looking at brackets, especially in the case of a characters whose fanbase is more "hardcore" and "old-school". There are some cases where all the brackets combined are better at predicting than the "experts" (or consensus on this board), however usually they are significantly worse (e.g., KOS-MOS vs. Crash).

Magus's 2:1 ratio against Sam doesn't really impress me. Aeris, Auron, and Alucard (heh, the three A's) all posted similar numbers against similar opponents

Sam Fisher is definitely more impressive than Bomberman, and probably moreso than Tails as well. There can be little doubt that Magus >> Alucard.

Because at least 75% of the voters don't come here. So I don't think it has much of an impact.

Yeah, 75% is a convservative number there...most likely it's much higher (say, 85%-90%). These boards clearly have virtually no impact on the outcomes of these matches. The only case where there was even any indication of this board existing was the first 90 seconds of CATS vs. Cloud, where CATS was actually winning...but of course Cloud was blowing CATS out within 5 minutes and ended up with 87%.
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Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004!

From: Jjukil | Posted: 7/23/2003 10:19:19 PM | Message Detail

Continuing my tradition of neglecting things for days, then catching up with it all in one too-long-to-read shot:

Pac-Man vs. Kefka: Well, exactly what I didn't want to happen happened. Pac-Man (the one I actually wanted to win) went down, but he put up quite a fight--which means that Kefka won't be, when the next round comes along. His turnout really is shocking, and/or depressing; after Crono's success, I figured Kefka would do a lot better--better than Scorpion, anyway. Kefka's not really less popular than Scorpion at Gamefaqs, is he? Maybe the pictures really do make a difference....

Crono vs. Nook: After AC's victory over FF7 in the Great Game Contest, I was starting to think Nook could do fairly well--20%, say. Not quite. Crono's as popular as ever, and there's little doubt he'll make it to Round 3 now. At least his Mario rematch will be fun to watch.

Seijun: You may have a point about the new voters being largely from PA (and thus largely Pac-Man fans). But I still can't see Pac-Man being as strong as Crono, who just scored an 85% blowout. And all Crono needs is about a thousand more votes to put down Kefka in the second round. I would still like to believe your theory, however--if it's true, then at least Kefka could still be more popular than Scorpion....

Ringworm's Stats: While I probably believe in bracket-voters more than most, I tend to think their biggest influences will be on A) the small-margin matches and B) the people worth the most points. More middle-ground matches, like Shadow vs. Wario, I'm less sure about. I also don't believe there's many people that will exclusively vote for their bracket. So the stats are interesting, but (as has been said before) probably not too conclusive.

Alucard vs. Bomberman: Went just as expected. Although Alucard did beat Bomberman by a bigger margin than Jill, I'm not sure what that means for Alucard/Kirby, since the margin wasn't THAT much bigger (and Kirby could easily be more popular now). We'll see next round.

Kirby vs. Ramza: Once again, one of the most-hyped matches of the first round turns into a dud, margin-wise. Kirby may not have proven himself a major Nintendo player here--since Ramza's not exactly Cloud himself--but he showed he has some power after all. The stage is set for another hard-to-pick matchup in Alucard vs. Kirby; will it be another "dud," or will it come down to the wire? (Then again, as Samberdog mentioned, 80% DID pick Kirby to win, and they might've helped him get this margin; I wonder how the picks will sway in Round 2....)

Day-Of-Week Averages: Very interesting, creativename. Surprising to see Friday outdoing Sunday in terms of votes--seems like more people would be home on Sunday. The trend seems to be holding fairly true this year, too; I guess that helps explain Pac-Man vs. Kefka (though it was low even for a weekend poll, especially considering it was so close).

Max vs. Gordon: Looks like the main effect of the Half Life hype was to make it closer than it would've been last year. (Or, at least, it's nice to assume Max would've beat Tina Armstrong.) Predictable result; boring characters. Low turnout (I think). Max won't make a dent in Round 2. Next.

Sephiroth vs. Raziel: Let's just pray Sephiroth doesn't get 90% of the vote. (Or at least, I should, since I have Mario beating him... *looks around nervously*)

From: MMXcalibur | Posted: 7/23/2003 10:22:30 PM | Message Detail

Think about it...Max Payne is going to get farther than Tidus, Pac-Man, Wario and Ramza. Wow.

Feel the power of the crap matchup!!!!

And we get to the last duo of blowouts...

Sephiroth will pwn.

Snake and Raiden is a match I'm looking forward to...just to see if Snake really REALLY owns Raiden in every aspect.....

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MEGA MAN RD. 1: vs Mr. Resetti
(2)Sephiroth vs (15)Raziel (21/23 pts.)

From: NT220 | Posted: 7/24/2003 4:05:03 AM | Message Detail

Bleh, my computer just ate my long reply regarding Magus. I'm not going to type the whole thing again, so just the gist of it:

I admit I was too rash in dismissing Magus's chances. I still disagree with Slowflake's listing of Magus as a top tier (especially in Sonic's stead), but I probably did underestimate him. My previous rationale was that he didn't have enough name recognition, and 16-bit RPG support is overrated, unless there's a good picture (see: Kefka), but I've realized that general name recognition isn't that important in a contest like this and that Magus does have a cool pic. Still don't see him being as strong as Crono, but I did underestimate him.

I probably underestimated Fisher, too, although I maintain that he is a "vogue" character just like Kite and KOS-MOS (albeit a far more popular vogue character). He was in mainly because he was fresh on people's minds when the nominations were out. Similarly if we had nominations last year we'd probably get people like Alexandra Roivas from Eternal Darkness. If Splinter Cell doesn't get a new entry over the holidays or early next year, don't expect to see him in the next character battle.

Just an interesting question, though: how do you think Frog would do if he were in the contest? Among CT fans he's nearly as popular as Magus, and he probably won't get screwed by an unrecognizable picture like Kefka did, but he won't appeal to the casual gamer as much as Crono or Magus does. He'd probably be the best indicator of 16-bit RPG support if he was in.
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"The surest sign of intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to contact us" ~Calvin

From: kawaiifan | Posted: 7/24/2003 5:13:33 AM | Message Detail

First, today I finally found the time to read through this entire thread. :)
I would like to thank everyone involved in compiling these stats and analysing the outcomes -- it's a fascinating read.

One message that especially caught my eye....
Creativename wrote, on page 4:

I used a very simple recursive formula to rank each character in the tournament last year, working backwards from the Link-Mario final.

Believe it or not, I recently did the very same thing, with the same formula. :)
The only differences were that I arbitrarily set Link's championship performance equal to a million points, thus making Sephiroth's 765312, Mega Man's 749950, and so on down to Mr. Driller's bringing up the rear at 46835;
and another difference was that you took greater care in putting together your chart than I did with mine. I had rounded off any fractional parts, to make calculating later characters' numbers more convenient, so rounding errors probably accumulated in my results.

Our method has the advantage of accounting for difficulty of opposition faced; a character (e.g. Kirby, Claire, Squall) who loses to a strong opponent in the first round, could well be more popular than a character (e.g. Pacman, Lara) who knocks off two weak entrants, thereby advancing to the round of sixteen, then proceeds to lose a close match to a middling opponent or to get blown out by a strong one.
Unfortunately, if anything, our formula even overcompensates ... for example, Servbot ranked 30th out of the 64 (@.@) all because of his not-as-bad-as-it-could-have-been defeat at the hands of finalist Mario.

Solarshadow wrote, on page 18:

And Master Chief vs. Felix was much closer than I'd expected. [...] What's Master Chief doing at #3 again? Methinks Aeris would have been more deserving of that spot.

I couldn't agree more.
Aeris turned in the 12th strongest performance last year, meriting a 3 seed this year.

Someone told me that this year's seeding was done strictly according to the number of nominations that each character received. I feel that for next year, the seeding might be somewhat more accurate if the characters' past performance played some part in it as well. Aeris' and Crono's underseeding are definite cases in point, as is Gordon's obvious overseeding. For that matter, in my opinion Gordon shouldn't have even been invited back, as was foretold by his performance last year having been the 56th strongest (9th weakest) out of all 64 entrants.
Kirby is also overseeded -- we Kirby fans wanted revenge for last year :) We remembered, and overnominated our pink puffball accordingly. No way is he a true 3 seed. Kirby would have essentially no chance heads-up against Aeris ... and she's an 11 seed.

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Supporting Nakoruru (and her little sister Rimururu too!) for nomination in 2004!

From: creativename | Posted: 7/24/2003 6:14:43 AM | Message Detail

Believe it or not, I recently did the very same thing, with the same formula. :)

Awesome! I think our method is not very accurate for predictions--for instance, Jill vs. Squall and Alucard vs. Bomberman turned out waaay different than they would have, if our model was predictive. However, I do consider it a better way of measuring last year's performance than simply going by how far the character advanced; in other words, it helps to eliminate the luck factor. So I think this type of ranking--despite its shortcomings--can be useful for seeding purposes.

Also, while our model wasn't very good at predicting match-ups between two people who were both here last year, I think it did show that that Tidus was very under-rated on this board. I made a thread a while back about how people under-rating Tidus was going to lead to a lot of incorrect conclusions. The logic went like this:

*People underestimate Tidus, and Ganon barely beat Tidus
-->People will underestimate Ganon
*Magus vs. Ganon (let's assume Magus wins for the moment) could be much closer than people think, because Ganon is actually pretty strong.
-->Thus, if/when Magus doesn't convincingly beat Ganon, people will underestimate Magus.
*At this point, people might expect Link to annihilate Magus--however, while Link will very likely win, it probably won't be a complete mis-match.
-->If Magus get around 40% of the vote against Link, people will suddenly conclude Link is vulnerable. This will lead people to overestimating Samus' chances.

Anyway, I just thought that this is a nice way to look at it, even though it's completely hypothetical and is assuming a lot.

(bah, my post is too big...)
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Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004!

From: creativename | Posted: 7/24/2003 6:18:15 AM | Message Detail

(continued)

Oh, and other stuff on our model (it's good to have someone to talk with this about!): it shows that Donkey Kong was extremely lucky last year. He advanced to the Sweet 16, despite being only the 42nd strongest in the whole tournament. While it has been shown our model is poor at predictions, I do think that this means something for the DK vs. Vyse match. DK seems to be a heavy favorite here, which really surprises me.

Let's compare it to Kirby vs. Ramza for the moment. While normally I would say Ramza > Vyse (because while Skies of Arcadia has a big following at this site, Tactic's is bigger), I have now become a convert and think that pics do matter (at least in the early rounds). No good pics exist of Ramza, but Vyse should get a pretty decent pic--I'm thinking people will see the two swords and go "this is t3h r0xx0rz!~!", heh ;) Also, Vyse has both Sega and Nintendo based because of his original game and the remake. Thus, for the purposes of this contest, I would say that Vyse > Ramza. And of course I don't even need to explain why Kirby >> Donkey Kong. As others have said, Donkey Kong appears to suffer from the fact that everyone knows him, but no one truly cares.

So, given the fact that DK did AWFUL last year according to our model, I'm calling this match the "model-predicted upset special". Even if our model is underestimating DK, he was just SO bad according to it. Let's convert our numbers to 100,000 votes, which is a good number for the 1st round. In this case, DK has a value of about 13,174 votes. Let's also assume that Kirby's popularity has stayed constant for the past year; his popularity last year was 32,969. Since Ramza's vote ratio to Kirby was .734, that gives Ramza a value of 24,206. If you assume that Vyse = Ramza, then Vyse is clearly far ahead of DK, 24,206 votes vs. 13,174 votes.

The Kirby '03 = Kirby '02 assumption, as well as the Ramza = Vyse assumption, are key here; and these are both very questionable assumptions. But, there seems to be a hell of a lot of leeway. DK only compares to Vyse if you almost double his popularity level. So while it's not 100% definitive that Vyse will beat DK, I consider it to be probable.

Oh, and I call our model a "Linearly Recursive Model Assuming Transitivy", since it is composed of recursive linear math and assumes a transitive relationship between matches holds. I guess this would be LRMAT. Do you call it anything?
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Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004!

From: creativename | Posted: 7/24/2003 6:28:52 AM | Message Detail

^^^***Also, Vyse has both Sega and Nintendo based

Typo; I meant "bases", not "based", as in support bases at this site.

Just an interesting question, though: how do you think Frog would do if he were in the contest? Among CT fans he's nearly as popular as Magus, and he probably won't get screwed by an unrecognizable picture like Kefka did, but he won't appeal to the casual gamer as much as Crono or Magus does. He'd probably be the best indicator of 16-bit RPG support if he was in.

I don't think Frog would do that great; OK, but not great. He is behing Magus in terms of popularity among CT, and I think it's by a pretty decent amount. Also, he is a Frog afterall--a Frog with a sword, which helps, but still a Frog. People that don't know who he is might be reluctant to vote for him. I think you are very correct in that he'd be the best indicator we have of SNES RPG support at this site.

I see Frog as being a solid 2nd round, maybe 3rd round guy depending on the bracket. I see Magus as being an easy 3rd round, very possible Elite Eight guy depending on the bracket. Though of course, I like Frog far better than Magus. Anybody that's played the game would know why it's somewhat difficult for a Frog fan to truly love Magus :)
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Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004!

From: cyko | Posted: 7/24/2003 6:55:45 AM | Message Detail

Just an interesting question, though: how do you think Frog would do if he were in the contest? Among CT fans he's nearly as popular as Magus, and he probably won't get screwed by an unrecognizable picture like Kefka did, but he won't appeal to the casual gamer as much as Crono or Magus does. He'd probably be the best indicator of 16-bit RPG support if he was in.

i just can't see Frog doing as well as Crono or Magus. he almost has the same level of support on the boards, but he would grab a lot fewer casual votes. while he is drawn in Akira Toriyama's style, a frog with a sword isn't as cool-looking as a spikey haired kid with a sword or an evil guy with a scythe. comparitively, i think Frog probably would have gotten 55- 60% against Sam Fisher, 70% against Tom Nook, and about the same as Kefka against Pac-Man. then again, i could be wrong. a lot of voters might have a soft spot for frogs. =P

*People underestimate Tidus, and Ganon barely beat Tidus
-->People will underestimate Ganon
*Magus vs. Ganon (let's assume Magus wins for the moment) could be much closer than people think, because Ganon is actually pretty strong.
-->Thus, if/when Magus doesn't convincingly beat Ganon, people will underestimate Magus.
*At this point, people might expect Link to annihilate Magus--however, while Link will very likely win, it probably won't be a complete mis-match.
-->If Magus get around 40% of the vote against Link, people will suddenly conclude Link is vulnerable. This will lead people to overestimating Samus' chances.

i agree with your train of thought here, creativename. Magus will pull it out over Ganondorf (not by much, though) and i believe he will do respectable against Link, but Samus will probably not do as well as Magus, simply because the Nintendo vote will be split apart, the majority going to Link.

I do think that this means something for the DK vs. Vyse match. DK seems to be a heavy favorite here, which really surprises me.

however, i seriously doubt this match will be that close. Skies of Arcadia (although it is a great game) has nowhere near the level of support that Final Fantasy Tactics does. Vyse does have a cool picture, but he won't have as much support as a Square character. it won't be a huge blowout, but i think D.K. will win by more than Kirby did.
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Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti

From: Yesmar | Posted: 7/24/2003 1:09:38 PM | Message Detail

I was trying to figure out how many characters returned from the contest from last year and figured out the following.

26 Winners Returned
8 Losers Returned

This means a grand total of 34 (or just over half) of last year's contestants returned and 30 of this year's contestants are newcomers which was a lot more than I expected.

Anyway, for all those interested the six winners not invited to return were:

Morrigan
Aya Brea
Tina Armstrong
Kyo
Strider
Serious Sam Stone

&

the 8 losers that returned were:
Tails
Fox McCloud
Gordon Freeman
Squall Leonhart
Kirby
Raziel
Ken Masters
CATS

I was also trying to figure out a likely return scenario for next year's competition keeping the statistics the same, but some matches were just to close to call, leaving me to believe that more people from this year will be back when compared to people from last year.

Regardless, the 5 people that should not be back are:
Tails
Gordon Freeman
Raziel
Ken Masters
CATS

These people could not even manage to win any matches either year they were in the competition.

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The wind...it blows--Ganondorf in The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker

From: DomaDragoon | Posted: 7/24/2003 1:28:04 PM | Message Detail

Regardless, the 5 people that should not be back are:
Tails
Gordon Freeman
Raziel
Ken Masters
CATS

These people could not even manage to win any matches either year they were in the competition.

Yes, but you have to look at the competition.

Tails: Alucard / Auron. The long-sworded badasses. This is the kind of opponent Tails can't stand up to. If you put Tails up against a different kind of opponent (say, CATS or DK), then Tails would do better.

Freeman: Tina / Max Payne. Yeah, he should be scrapped, unless HL2 comes out before the next contest.

Raziel: Strider / Sephiroth. Heck, he shouldn't have been in this year after getting beaten by a third-tier character.

Ken: Samus / Sonic. Yeah, two icons. You really think Ken had a chance against either of them? I don't see any reason not to have him, although a different representative from the SF series would be better.

CATS: Ryu / Cloud. The father of the most prolific fighting series, and the founder of the next-gen RPG. CATS shouldn't be in, but you know he will.

---
RPGP Contributor "DragoonJay@excite.com"; Smart Ask! National Champion (2003)

From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/24/2003 2:30:25 PM | Message Detail

Solarshadow... Just wanted to let you know that the PacMan/Kefka stats don't show up when I choose "All Stats" instead of "First Round Stats."

Yeah, thanks. I'm not sure how that happened. I know I updated it, because I recall specifically checking to make sure it was correct. Must have "un-updated" it somehow. Oops. :)

--without Cloud, Monday seems to be more or less just another weekday.

I have no idea why that made me laugh so hard. It sounds like you're love-sick, or maybe you hate clear skies or something. ;)

Tom Nook is a bastard and not well liked by too many people, even Animal Crossing fans.

I think that's taking it a bit far. Although he's known as "Nook the Crook", I think that's a semi-affectionate term for the entrepreneurial raccoon. :) Sure he has a monopoly on the items for sale in Animal Crossing, but he's also willing to buy any old junk you bring him. So he's pretty much the source of all the money you receive in the game, as well as being the recipient of it. :)

Anyway, lots of good stuff to read, I just wish I had time to read it all (I've been skimming). I promise I'll start hanging around in this topic more often once I finally have Internet access again (still a week or two off). Oh, and I think I put a new poll up on the stats site recently. I think. I'm so disoriented. :(
---
Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: Who Cares? | Posted: 7/24/2003 2:39:56 PM | Message Detail

Finally have enough time to post on this thread again, at least for today!

Anyway, for all those interested the six winners not invited to return were:

Morrigan
Aya Brea
Tina Armstrong
Kyo
Strider
Serious Sam Stone

Funny thing about this list is that the only ones who could truly put up a fight if they returned next year would be Morrigan & Aya. We all know how big RPG's are on this site, so Aya would probably have another good showing, depending on her competition. And for all the whining about Morri's jugs, fact is, she's in my view, one of the top 5-10 most popular characters in fighting game circles, and outside Ryu & Scorpion, the only fighting game character that was impressive last year.

Regardless, the 5 people that should not be back are:
Tails
Gordon Freeman
Raziel
Ken Masters
CATS

These people could not even manage to win any matches either year they were in the competition.

The only one I may have a problem with is Tails. Afterall, when your given Alucard & Auron in your first match, your chances aren't good unless that character is an icon. But I will say that Tails' best days are well behind him.

And as for Ken, I wholeheartedly agree. As much as I like Ken, it's time Street Fighter got a better representative or two. Perhaps Chun-Li or Akuma, both whom may be more popular than Ryu in fighting game circles these days. However I will argue that if Ken, or even Morrigan, would have switched positions with Scorpion last year, that would have done just as well, if not better than Scorpion.

Anyway, just wanted to respond to that. I'll catchup to the rest of the thread later.

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/24/2003 4:43:49 PM | Message Detail

Match #24 Review

The outcome of this match was extremely predictable, and I even managed to get the percentages right! (It would be hilarious if the poll ended with EXACTLY 82-18...) Of course, Mario and Crono had much stronger showings, but Raziel is definitely no Olimar or Nook.

Match #25 Preview

An action game icon vs. the most hated character from the same series. I wonder where this'll go... In all seriousness though, it will effectively take someone like Raiden for Snake to get a blowout of the like of most top-tiers. I was shocked when I discovered that Raiden had fans, and loyal ones at that... but most people who played MGS2 won't even dare to give Raiden pity votes. But will the "I thought this was the MK Raiden" factor play a role...?
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 21/23, 0 lost . . . . . T-224 (771-way)
Today's pick: Sephiroth

From: Haste2 | Posted: 7/24/2003 4:54:06 PM | Message Detail

creativename and kawaiifan, I did a rankings list just like yours and donated it to the topic about a year ago...it's in the old topic, though.

I personally don't think Vyse has much of a chance against Donkey Kong. While DK did horrible against Mario last year, we gotta remember that almost all the DK fans like Mario, as well, and would prefer Mario without question. Just a fanboy clash...

And I really think that Aya > Vyse. Skies of Arcadia wasn't a very big hit, even on this site, mainly because it was released on the GameCube and Dreamcast, one system with few RPG fans and the other being dead. Parasite Eve was quite a popular game, and the featured Aya has TJF, as well. I just don't think Vyse's looks will attract near as many votes as Aya did...

And whoever said that Sephy would beat Raziel 82/18, it looks like you are exactly correct. =p I thought the victim would at least put up a better fight than Crash Bandicoot did last year.

Sephiroth scares me...he seems to perform better against semi-weak opponents than even Link. I honestly thought he would win it all last year after Round 2's results.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/24/2003 5:57:57 PM | Message Detail

Oh, does this elaborate method of calculation take into account the absolute destruction of DK against Mario? If it does... then Vyse doesn't have as much of a chance as you say. He can win, but it's not a no-brainer like you make it out to be. I think that if DK went against an equally popular non-Nintendo character, I think DK would have fared much better.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 21/23, 0 lost . . . . . T-224 (771-way)
Today's pick: Sephiroth

From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/24/2003 5:59:24 PM | Message Detail

That's some neat stuff KM. I still can't believe only 20% chose Ramza after all the hulabaloo over the match. Sometimes not being "elite" has its advantages.

Match #20 - Crono VS Tom Nook - Review

Crono - 88469 / 85.81%
Tom Nook - 14631 / 14.19%

Total - 103100 (9th highest)

Predicted Percentage - 92.8% (16th hardest)
My Pick - Crono
Analysis Topic Pick - Crono
"Odds" Pick - Crono

Brackets Ruined - 26

Crono proves that his performance last year wasn't a fluke, and that he has what it takes to play with all the big boys. His blowout against Tom proves that Mario/Crono Pt. II should be a match to remember. It's clear that after Kefka's narrow win, Crono will make it to the third round without a hitch. So after the first round, who has the advantage in the highly anticipated rematch? Looking at percentages, Mario had the bigger blowout by a decent margin, even though Crono managed to acquire nearly as many votes as him. Crono's poll also had several thousand more total votes, even though his match took place on Sunday. So who was the bigger competition, Olimar or Tom Nook? It's hard to say, especially since one matchup was Nintendo VS Nintendo and the other Nintendo VS Square. Olimar's game, Pikmin, has done slightly better than AC here in North America, of course, it's been out about six months longer. There's no doubt though, that Animal Crossing has a much larger community here at Gamefaqs (it's still hanging around #25 on the top FAQs list). If you've played Pikmin you'll know that Olimar is a pretty unassuming character. His journal entries are neat, but nothing too exciting really. Votes coming for Olimar were most likely based on his game's merit, not his character's. I rented AC, and thought it was pretty neat. I harbored no hate for Tom Nook. He gives the player a house and it's only natural that he would expect to be paid back. I can understand some people not liking him though, especially if they didn't really care about earning money in the game. So who had the tougher opposition? It's hard to say, although I'd say it's probably Crono, just because Animal Crossing is so much more popular at Gamefaq's than Pikmin is. Unfortunately all Animal Crossing fans have to look forward to is Mr. Resetti being the victim of an even bigger blowout than the one Nook was a part of. Hopefully we'll see more of both Mario and Crono's skills next round.

Match #21 - Alucard VS Bomberman - Review

Alucard - 65351 / 64.46%
Bomberman - 36033 / 35.54%

Total - 101384 (11th highest)

Prediction Percentage - 63% ( (11th hardest)
My Pick - Alucard
Analysis Topic Pick - Alucard
"Odds" Pick - Alucard

Brackets Ruined - 9

This was a pretty uneventful match, the only surprising thing is that only 63% of entrants predicted the match correctly. One thing that's interesting though is that this is one of only three first round matches where both competitors made it past the first round last year. Looking at last year's results, we can see that... Alucard > (Jill > Kirby >) Bomberman. So Alucard beat Bomberman worse than Jill did. And Jill beat Bomberman worse than she beat Kirby. As long as Kirby hasn't grown in popularity too much since last year, Alucard should defeat Kirby in a fairly tight match.

More to Come!
---
Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 20-3 / 20 points won / 3 points lost

From: creativename | Posted: 7/24/2003 6:14:25 PM | Message Detail

From: Who Cares? | Posted: 7/24/2003 2:39:56 PM
And as for Ken, I wholeheartedly agree. As much as I like Ken, it's time Street Fighter got a better representative or two. Perhaps Chun-Li or Akuma, both whom may be more popular than Ryu in fighting game circles these days. However I will argue that if Ken, or even Morrigan, would have switched positions with Scorpion last year, that would have done just as well, if not better than Scorpion

I disagree about Ken. Ken's showing have actually been quite impressive. He is a very solid 2nd round character. And no, I don't think Akumna would do nearly as well as Ken. You have to remember than Ken has the old-school fans behind him; Akuma would not have this. Most wouldn't even know who he was. Morrigan is more well-known than Akuma. His main hope would be having a real bad-ass pic. As for Chun-Li, I doubt she would do as good as Ken, because she is a girl. Contrary to all the whining about "TJF", it seems more common in these polls for females candidates to under-perform. The only Street Fighter character, not including Ryu, who might have a chance to do better than Ken is Vega.

And yes, Ken for one is > Scorpion, in all likelihood. Morrigan and Scorpion are close too.

From: Haste2 | Posted: 7/24/2003 4:54:06 PM
And I really think that Aya > Vyse.

Actually, the fact that he almost lost to a relatively unknown female is another reason why I discount DK. Like I said, females seem to underperform at this site. "TJF" is just something people came up with and it caught on mostly for comedic purposes; however, it doesn't really appear to be an actual factor. Stuff like Aya vs. DK (DK is not popular) and Tina vs. Gordon (no one knows Gordon) can easily be explained without TJF, which is what people mostly came up with it for.

So no, I don't think Aya > Vyse; I don't believe it's even close. The fact that he is a male gives him an edge, as does the two-sword thing, as well as the fact that at this website SoA is far more popular than Parasite Eve. I don't ever--I mean, EVER--hear people talking about Parasite Eve on this site. Whereas, people very often talk about SoA. Ramirez, for one, always gets tons of responses on various "best villain" polls.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004!

From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/24/2003 6:42:55 PM | Message Detail

Match #22 - Kirby VS Ramza - Review

Kirby - 57862 / 57.66%
Ramza - 42482 / 42.34%

Total - 100344 (13th highest)

Prediction Percentage - 80% (15th hardest)
My Pick - Kirby
Analysis Topic Pick - Kirby
"Odds" Pick - Kirby

Brackets Ruined - 86

Another close match come and gone. Of course, it wasn't nearly as exciting as it was made out to be, but that's probably for the best, as we've had plenty of excitement this division with two other matches with surprise results. As much talk as there was, Kirby winning makes sense. He's a fan favorite at Gamefaqs, and his new cartoon series could not have hurt his popularity. Of course, we could have just been overestimating Ramza. He was the only character I hadn't heard of. I guess he doesn't have the appeal of the other FF heroes. So chalk up another victory for Nintendo over Square (just in case it means something) as Kirby moves on to round two, where he'll face Alucard. I doubt Kirby will be able to win here, Alucard is a pretty strong opponent. I predict Alucard should be able to take it with about 56%, although there is the possibility of the puffball pulling an upset.

Match #23 - Gordon VS Max - Review

Gordon - 41997 / 46.01%
Max - 49281 / 53.99%

Total - 91278 (23rd highest)

Prediction Percentage - 65.4%
My Pick - Max
Analysis Topic Pick - Max
"Odds" Pick - Gordon

Brackets Ruined - 120

Another close match... the South's first round has turned out to be a lot tougher than I thought it would. Anyway Gordon and Max squared off in what will most likely be the least popular match of the contest. PC characters never get much love on Gamefaqs, so neither of these characters are very exciting. Most chose Max to win it, as more voters would be able to recognize his character. The looming release of HL2 didn't seem to do much for Gordon, who got owned by a bottom tier character for the second year in a row. Gordon winning the entire contest in 120 brackets, and his unusually high seed does seem to indicate that he has a fair few hardcore fans, even more than someone like Ramza. Unfortunately, they mean nothing because Gordon is a loser. Anyway, Max is dead next round, I'm not even convinced he'll be able to put up as good a fight against Sephiorth as Raziel is currently.

Match #24 - Sephiroth VS Raziel - Current

Sephiroth caps off the tumultous South Division with an easy blowout, though perhaps not as easy as some Sephiroth fans may prefer. We'll have to wait for the final voting total to see just how Sephiroth stacks up against the stiff competition in his division this year.

Match #25 - Snake VS Raiden - Preview

Snake will win, MGS incest makes it hard for me to predict how big of a blowout it will be. I just have one question, would Raiden do better or worse if CJayC used a Naked Raiden pic? :p

Hurray for me being all caught up!

---
Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 20-3 / 20 points won / 3 points lost

From: creativename | Posted: 7/24/2003 7:09:30 PM | Message Detail

I just have one question, would Raiden do better or worse if CJayC used a Naked Raiden pic?

Better. There's too many pervs at this site.
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004!

From: EvilNcr | Posted: 7/24/2003 7:19:13 PM | Message Detail

Gordon winning the entire contest in 120 brackets, and his unusually high seed does seem to indicate that he has a fair few hardcore fans, even more than someone like Ramza.

I strongly disagree. In that fight, no one cared about each other and quite frankly, they both wouldn't be able to score a 35% against Kirby.

Kirby isn't a weak opponent... but a average one as I call it. Ramza made a strong showing for a 13th seed. Trust me, Ramza would handily defeat both Max and Gordon. And RPG fans are not lacking here. Many FFT fans actually voted Kirby. Against Max or Gordon, they wouldn't hesitate to support him.

Ramza has about 300 times the number of hardcore fans than both max and Gordon.
---
The Reaper is always a step behind you ncr...

From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/24/2003 8:18:55 PM | Message Detail

What I meant was Gordon has more fans that would place him above any other character than Ramza does.

That's why Gordon has a higher seed than Ramza.
That's why more people chose Gordon to win the entire thing than Ramza.

I do agree with you though, Ramza would be able to easily beat either Gordon or Max.
---
Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 20-3 / 20 points won / 3 points lost

From: Jjukil | Posted: 7/24/2003 8:36:07 PM | Message Detail

Quick comment:

Contrary to all the whining about "TJF", it seems more common in these polls for females candidates to under-perform. The only Street Fighter character, not including Ryu, who might have a chance to do better than Ken is Vega.

Hope you're talking about M.Bison/Vega, rather than Vega/Balrog. Bison, I could see the reasoning for--he's the end-boss, and a fairly memorable one sometimes. The other Vega really has very little going for him (certainly less than Chunny).

From: creativename | Posted: 7/24/2003 9:12:07 PM | Message Detail

Hope you're talking about M.Bison/Vega, rather than Vega/Balrog. Bison, I could see the reasoning for--he's the end-boss, and a fairly memorable one sometimes. The other Vega really has very little going for him (certainly less than Chunny).

No, I'm talking about Japanese Balrog/American Vega (I was going to clarify this before, but thought I might end up confusing people). Vega was also far more popular than American M. Bison. He had that whole Wolverine thing going for him. Vega was ridiculously popular. I have little doubt he would fare better than Chun Li.

I remember being at the arcade, or the busy Street Fighter machine at 7-11...ah, the old days. Anyway, Vega had a crapload of fanboys back then. Less than Ryu, but probably on par with Ken. No one else was close. To this day, when I see people discussing Street Fighter, people talk about how cool Vega was. No one talks about M. Bison (though if HE had been named Vega, no doubt he'd be more popular).
---
Frog must be in the 2004 character battle, if there is one.
Remember to nominate Frog in 2004!

From: kawaiifan | Posted: 7/24/2003 9:13:18 PM | Message Detail

Creativename wrote:

Awesome!

:)

I think our method is not very accurate for predictions--for instance, Jill vs. Squall and Alucard vs. Bomberman turned out waaay different than they would have, if our model was predictive.

In Jill vs. Squall, Jill has apparently lost considerable popularity recently, while some previously annoyed fans may have forgiven Squall in the past year. So, while this outcome was indeed an upset according to our system, upsets can happen! And that just makes it more fun :)

I do agree, though, that Alucard vs. Bomberman demonstrates that our method is far from perfect.

Another factor not accounted for by our system is exemplified by Donkey Kong:

As others have said, Donkey Kong appears to suffer from the fact that everyone knows him, but no one truly cares.

DK's performances showcase the fickle nature of his support. The big ape apparently has few actual fans in his own right. On the other hand, whenever he's up against a non-Nintendo character, he can rely on the massive Nintendo machine lending him their votes for that match.

In other words, as far as his own popularity for himself, he's a dud. In contrast, as a 'vehicle for Nintendo support,' he can certainly put up a strong showing over weak characters (and hypothetically perhaps even do well in a loss to the likes of a Vercetti / Cloud / Mega Man / Solid Snake); but as soon as he goes up against a Big N character who's popular in and of her or himself, Kong disintegrates. (Mario / Link / Samus, for instance.)

I feel that Vyse stands very little chance against DK, since many of the plentiful Mario / Link fans won't even recognise Vyse ... and even if they do, they won't realise that he has appeared on their platform. Everybody knows Donkey Kong and where his big simian feet stand.
However, Vyse can count on receiving votes from the sword- and some of the anime-devotees, and from the anti-Nintendo coalition, in addition to his own fans. Yet I still don't feel that it'll be close to enough to topple the primate in this round.
Of course, I've been wrong many times before. :)

Oh, and I call our model a "Linearly Recursive Model Assuming Transitivity" [...] I guess this would be LRMAT. Do you call it anything?

:) Sorry, no.

By the way, I'd be glad to nominate Frog next year ... please nominate Nakoruru for me though. :)

---
Supporting Nakoruru (and her little sister Rimururu too!) for nomination in 2004!

Rooting for Mega Man, and some other characters, in the meantime.

From: cyko | Posted: 7/24/2003 10:09:39 PM | Message Detail

Top 5 Vote Getters

1. Cloud Strife- 94086
2. Link- 92998
3. Mario- 89189
4. Crono- 88469
5. Samus Aran- 81123

Top 5 Most Pathetic Characters (Least Votes)

1. Aiai- 8802
2. Captain Olimar- 11678
3. CATS- 14168
4. Tom Nook- 14631
5. Ratchet- 24099

Top 5 Blowouts (Biggest Vote Difference)

1. Link over Aiai- 84196
2. Cloud over Cats- 79918
3. Mario over Captain Olimar- 77511
4. Crono over Tom Nook- 73838
5. Samus over Isaac- 54563

Top 5 Closest Matches

1. Ganondorf over Tidus- 1582
2. Kefka over Pac-Man- 1773
3. Master Chief over Felix- 6318
4. Max Payne over Gordon Freeman- 7284
5. Kirby over Ramza- 15380

Top 5 Most Impressive Losers

1. Tidus- 57078
2. Felix- 50231
3. Pac-Man- 45905
4. Ramza- 42482
5. Gordon Freeman- 41997

Top 5 Least Impressive Winners

1. Kefka- 47678
2. Max Payne- 49281
3. Master Chief- 56549
4. Squall- 57392
5. Kirby 57862

Top 5 Biggest Vote Totals

1. Tidus vs. Ganondorf- 115738
2. Zero vs. Scorpion- 112801
3. Auron vs. Tails- 108884
4. Cloud vs. CATS- 108254
5. Samus vs. Isaac- 107683

Top 5 Smallest Vote Totals

1. Gordon Freeman vs. Max Payne- 91278
2. Sam Fisher vs. Magus- 91464
3. Yoshi vs. Conker- 92418
4. Pac-Man vs. Kefka- 93583
5. Luigi vs. Ratchet- 94649

Top 5 Easiest Matches to Pick (Based on Number of Correct Contest Entries)

1. Link vs. Aiai- 99.1%
2. Mario vs. Captain Olimar- 98.0%
3. Cloud vs. CATS- 94.9%
4. Samus vs. Isaac- 93.8%
5. Crono vs. Tom Nook- 92.8%

Top 5 Hardest Matches to Pick

1. Wario vs. Shadow the Hedgehog- 42.1%
2. KOS-MOS vs. Crash Bandicoot- 42.5%
3. Pac-Man vs. Kefka- 43.5%
4. Zero vs. Scorpion- 47.3%
5. Tidus vs. Ganondorf- 47.7%

---
Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti

From: cyko | Posted: 7/24/2003 10:22:35 PM | Message Detail

Regardless, the 5 people that should not be back are:
Tails
Gordon Freeman
Raziel
Ken Masters
CATS

okay, here's what i think:

Tails- he really did draw some tough matches with first Alucard and then Auron, but in all honesty, he is the weakest link in the chain of Sonic characters. Sonic, Knuckles, and Shadow are all way more popular, so Tails really doesn't need to come back again. but Sega does deserve its fair share of characters, so how about someone like Toejam or Earl instead?

Gordon- yeah, he lost to two low level characters. get him out of here.

Raziel- again, why did he even return this year? he should also go away.

Ken Masters - Ken, however, deserves another shot. he got stuck with Samus and then Sonic. and he did pretty respectable against both. 31% against Sonic is no easy task. but even if he did show up again, he'd probably get another low seed against a tough opponent for yet another first round loss. i doubt any other Street Fighter character, including Vega, Akuma, and Chun Li could do much better.

CATS- ugh. either way, that CATS army won't shutup, so i guess it doesn't really matter. i still can't believe they honestly thought CATS could beat Cloud.

---
Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti

From: Jjukil | Posted: 7/24/2003 10:35:29 PM | Message Detail

Heh, strange...Akuma was the one people were abusing at my arcades. ;)

I really don't know enough about the Street Fighter community at large to argue who would do best with them. But I don't think Vega would do well with the casual voters because his role is so limited. He was one of the original 12 World Warriors, but so was E. Honda. Vega didn't make the Alpha series that gave Akuma his fame until A3 (which had everyone), and he didn't make SF3 (which had Akuma and Chun Li) at all.

Besides, Akuma's the tough guy, and Chun Li's the cute girl. Vega's...okay, he's the psycho with the claw. Bad example. ;) Still don't think that outdoes the other two, though....

From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/24/2003 11:06:34 PM | Message Detail

For what its worth, I hate Ken and hope he dies.

I think Chun-Li could do much better.
---
Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 20-3 / 20 points won / 3 points lost

From: Samberdog | Posted: 7/24/2003 11:14:44 PM | Message Detail

"RPGP Contributor "DragoonJay@excite.com"; Smart Ask! National Champion (2003)"

Smart Ask!? As in the CBC Quiz show? That's awesome, my school's team went to Toronto and won a few rounds last year. I wasn't on it but I plan to try out next fall.
---
Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Current Record: 20-3 / 20 points won / 3 points lost

From: King Morgoth | Posted: 7/25/2003 12:02:31 AM | Message Detail

My prediction would be Sephiroth, 82-18

The outcome of this match was extremely predictable, and I even managed to get the percentages right! (It would be hilarious if the poll ended with EXACTLY 82-18...)

http://cgi.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.asp?poll=1328

Slowflake, I must say this is truly impressive...
---
"Everything gold does not glitter, Not all those who wander are lost"
Current Points: 22/24

From: EvilNcr | Posted: 7/25/2003 12:05:39 AM | Message Detail

O_o... slowfake, you are godly.
---
The Reaper is always a step behind you ncr...

From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 7/25/2003 12:06:19 AM | Message Detail

Awesome job Slowflake! A perfect guess.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

From: Jjukil | Posted: 7/25/2003 12:08:18 AM | Message Detail

...wow. That's hilarious.
Impressive, too....

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/25/2003 6:04:43 AM | Message Detail

Oh. My. ****ing. God.

Normally I'm as good as a rotten strawberry at these things, and I just went to see the results, saying "No way I could have called this to the hundredth", and OMG WTF BBQ?

Good thing I didn't try Snake/Raiden, I thought this would be more along the lines of 93/7.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 22/24, 0 lost . . . . . T-223 (758-way)
Today's pick: Snake

From: cyko | Posted: 7/25/2003 6:18:46 AM | Message Detail

lol, go Slowflake! right on with Sephiroth and his 82%!

---
Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti

From: Nebachanezer | Posted: 7/25/2003 6:35:32 AM | Message Detail

Just looking at ther numbers from the sephi/raziel match it is the highest vote garnering match. Does this solidify sephi as a legit contender to dethrone link? I know that it's just the first round, but when a 2/15 match gets the most votes thus far that can't bode well for some of the favorites, can it?
---
"We enter this world through an endless shroud of tears. That's almost Shakespearean, isn't it?" Dr. Gill, Kikaider
"I stink!" Rich Vos

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/25/2003 6:37:52 AM | Message Detail

MEEP! Wrong! This match's third, behind Tidus vs. Ganondorf and Zero vs. Scorpion. Then again, the ability to attract votes last year didn't help Cloud when he needed it the most last year, against Mario.
---
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 22/24, 0 lost . . . . . T-223 (758-way)
Today's pick: Snake

From: cyko | Posted: 7/25/2003 6:39:55 AM | Message Detail

cyko's Match 23 Review

Gordon Freeman vs. Max Payne

*yawn* whats to review here? two characters that nobody cares about and have no chance of winning against Sephiroth. in a somewhat close match, Max Payne pulls out a not well-deserved victory. i doubt that Max will even get as many votes as Raziel did against Seph. well, at least i got my bracket point.

cyko's Match 24 Review

Sephiroth vs. Raziel

just as Slowflake predicted, it's an 82% victory for Sephiroth. he shows no signs of slowing down this yearand although his percentage of votes was lower than both Crono and Mario, his total number of votes was higher than both. the south division finals will be one heck of a match. Sephiroth fans get to relax for a little while longer, though, as he gets another bye next round against Max Payne.

cyko's Match 25 Preview

Solid Snake vs. Raiden

i seriously thought that Snake was against Raiden from Mortal Kombat for the longest time. when i first picked my bracket, i never bothered to check the profile and i never even thought abought Raiden from MGS2. when i discovered which Raiden was really in this match shortly before the tourney started, i laughed. i laughed a lot. this is gonna be a huge blowout. when you take a popular character from a series and match him up against an unliked character from the same series, you get one massive cornholing. Raiden has a few fans, but the majority of the vote he could have gotten in a different match would have been Metal Gear Solid fans. but when you take the series vote away and give most of it to Snake, all you have left is pity. Raiden will be lucky if he breaks 10000 votes. i honestly think Mortal Kombat Raiden would have done better, probably at least 25%.
at least this match will prove to Hideo Kojima that most people were unhappy with getting stuck with Raiden in the second game and will hopefully put Solid Snake back in the main character spot in Metal Gear Solid 3, right where he belongs.

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Currently a fan of these Summer2K3 characters:
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti

From: steve illumina | Posted: 7/25/2003 2:18:43 PM | Message Detail

First let me say, this thread has been extremely entertaining, insightful, and a welcome respite from the lame trash skewed throughout the message board as a whole. All of the experts on this board should be commended for their statistical analysis of the battles and for their commentary.

It is time for I, a new 'expert' to chime in with a humorously written yet serious approach to the tourney, beginning with the three completed first round divisions.

We begin in the North, where defending champion Link easily dispatched the futile primate AiAi by a crushing margin of over 84000 votes. He will go on to a ho-hum rematch from last season against fellow Nintendo stalwart Fox McCloud, who handily defeated the fading Pikachu.

Some would say the next two matches were upsets because of the seed numbers who won, but I say...rubbish! In my view, Ganondorf eeked out the win only due to the fact Wind Waker was released so recently in March, and so then he is in the minds of the voters as being more fresh than Tidus, already out 2 years on PS2 and in the league of Squall on the Square Popularity meter. The result easily would have been the other way around if Wind Waker came out last year. Chalk this one up to the retail factor. And thus then the lower seeded Ganondorf wins in what really was an even contest. He goes on to face #13 seed Magus, a beloved and Top 3 Square villain in the minds of many (the Top 3 along with Sephiroth & Kefka) who handily defeated overseeded upstart Sam Fisher, a generic one game wonder character who belonged somewhere lower than #4.

Middle of the road Square hero 'Storm' Squall Leonhart blows past last year holdover Jill Valentine, cementing a spot in the next round against Luigi, the oft-neglected and vastly underrated brother of the King of Platformers, who proved his mettle by destroying edgy one game action wonder Ratchet by a 65000+ vote margin, one of the highest blowouts thus far.

Dark horse candidate KOS-MOS of Xenosaga Episode 1 fame wiped the floor with fading Sony rodent Crash Bandicoot by a wider margin than many expected, including myself, giving her solid momentum against Nintendo tier 2 character Samus Aran, who walloped newbie Isaac, who tried valiantly in his debut to pull off the upset but failed, though pulling off a respectable 25% showing, earning an invite next year in the eyes of many.

Stay tuned for my South and East wrapup, and then my West pre-match analysis and more to come later as the exciting 2nd round follows! Thanks again to all for readin :)

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~Steve Illumina~ Contest Score: 19/24
Offical Sephiroth Supporter: Summer Contest 2003

From: steve illumina | Posted: 7/25/2003 2:19:30 PM | Message Detail

(continuation of last post)

Progressing to the East, where Squaresoft's Mr. Popular Cloud destroyed the CATS army with a swoop of his Materia Blade, though as we all know, the CATS will rise next year...to lose again! He faces rising star Auron, who won the first recognized by the majority surprise result of the tourney, defeating old school Sega sidekick Tails convincingly by about 32000 votes.

Swinging up next was Nintendo, where a pair of platform legends came through against lesser Nintendo characters. Ness fell to perennial Mario nemesis Bowser handily, as did Conker, who suffered defeat at the tounge of Yoshi in a low voter turnout contest.

Sora of Kingdom Hearts was bested by underseeded fan favorite Aeris and she goes on to face the hero of Xbox, the overrated generic Master Chief, who barely squeaked by against the winner of 'Best Supporting Character in a Game Boy RPG' Felix. This upcoming snoozefest will likely be the biggest blowout of the 2nd round.

Last year's favorite son, Scorpion, was embarrassed by Mega Man wannabe Zero, and produces an exciting 2nd round match against the iconic Sonic, who as expected, beat Ryu clone Ken Masters, but Ken as we all know, took many votes...33146 of them, and will return with a better seeding next year, for he does deserve better, compared to other higher seeds than him who fared worse. (Pikachu...Ness...Conker...you know who u are!)

The South division started with a bang in many respects. First, Mario, the King of Platformers and Savior of Gaming, hops all over hapless Captain 'Oh Captain My Captain' Olimar of the underrated Pikmin series. Second bang is semi-palette swapped but evolving in originality Wario being upset, yes upset, by palette swapped but no real originality yet Shadow the Hedgehog. This broke many brackets, mine included.

Universally respected Pac Man fell short against Kefka, another of the 'Top 3 Square villains club, but barely, proving again why he will always maintain timeless popularity. Kefka will face Crono, the silent yet loved hero of Chrono Trigger, who dispatched little known newcomer Tom Nook, sending him back to his lil shop from whence he came in Animal Crossing with a spanking.

Alucard of Castlevania vanquished old school Bomberman in a rather uneventful match, and pink puff Kirby did the same to minor Square hero Ramza in a match that disappointed some on the boards. Ramza is a classic case of the 'game is more than any of its characters' syndrome, and it showed by his non-overwhelming, but still fan supported, performance.

The lamest match of the first round, Gordon Freeman vs Max Payne, ended predictably, with Max defeating Gordy in a battle of fading first person stars which showed true voter apathy with the lowest turnout on record this year. Both have sequels coming...does it matter here? Nope...it matters not...for Max shall now face the mighty Sephiroth, greatest of Square's villians (and my pick for the tourney!) who destroyed wannabe bad boy Raziel and probably be destroyed in what very well may be the biggest blowout of the 2nd round, competing with Aeris v Master Chief, as the FF7 steamroller continues in the second round here.

Stay tuned for my West pre-match analysis and more to come later as the exciting 2nd round follows! Thanks again to all for readin :)
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~Steve Illumina~ Contest Score: 19/24
Offical Sephiroth Supporter: Summer Contest 2003

From: solarshadow | Posted: 7/25/2003 2:46:34 PM | Message Detail

Some stats catch-up:

WEST DIVISION

1 - Mario - 89189 / 88.42% (100867) - 40235 / 98.0%
16 - Captain Olimar - 11678 / 11.58% (100867) - 824 / 2.0%

8 - Wario - 36721 / 35.10% (104607) - 23768 / 57.9%
9 - Shadow the Hedgehog - 67886 / 64.90% (104607) - 17291 / 42.1%

5 - Pac-Man - 45905 / 49.05% (93583) - 23209 / 56.5%
12 - Kefka - 47678 / 50.95% (93583) - 17850 / 43.5%

4 - Crono - 88469 / 85.81% (103100) - 38103 / 92.8%
13 - Tom Nook - 14631 / 14.19% (103100) - 2956 / 7.2%

6 - Alucard - 65351 / 64.46% (101384) - 25852 / 63.0%
11 - Bomberman - 36033 / 35.54% (101384) - 15207 / 37.0%

3 - Kirby - 57862 / 57.66% (100344) - 32861 / 80.0%
14 - Ramza Beoulve - 42482 / 42.34% (100344) - 8198 / 20.0%

7 - Gordon Freeman - 41997 / 46.01% (91278) - 14199 / 34.6%
10 - Max Payne - 49281 / 53.99% (91278) - 26860 / 65.4%

2 - Sephiroth - 90364 / 82.00% (110202) - 38560 / 93.9%
15 - Raziel - 19838 / 18.00% (110202) - 2499 / 6.1%

Oh, and I'm behind on my poll questions, so I just put another one up. How did we get into the West Division already? This contest is really flying by...
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Contest Stats: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com

From: steve illumina | Posted: 7/25/2003 3:09:37 PM | Message Detail

My West pre-match analysis!

Solid Snake will easily defeat Raiden...wait he already is! Even if I said it yesterday I would have said the same thing. Another easy victory for the Snake, the weakest of the four #1 seeds.

Brings us to tomorrow's Sonic Hedgehog vs FFX rematch, in this case, Knuckles v Yuna. Some say this should be the most interesting match in this bracket, but Yuna's popularity will echo Auron's in a similar score. Knuckles will fall here as did Tails, for neither of them are in Sonic's league. They are mere supporting characters, whereas Yuna is a star in her own right now with FFX-2. Look for a 60-40 split.

4 blowouts of varying caliber follow. Street Fighter poster child Ryu will destroy the forgotten Duke Nukem 'my sequel has been in development' Forever by an 80-20 margin and avenge Ken in the process. Next Dante of Devil May 'but I won't' Cry will whip up on lesser known Ryo Hazuki of Shenmue 'Shenwho?' by a likely 75-25 margin. Next blowout will be Nintendo's erratic juggernaut Donkey Kong over Vyse of Skies of Arcadia, another likely 75-25 score, and the worst of the four blowouts in this line will be Tommy 'Newbie' Vercetti of GTA who will grease Kite of .hack, and will do so embarrassingly. Of all the characters in the round of 64, Kite does not belong here. Kite of Pee-Wee's Playhouse would have done better...

The most interesting match in my mind in this bracket is Lara vs Zelda. A girl who fell from grace vs a girl who never had any. A girl who will win because of a new movie, over a girl from a great game series that still shines. not from one past its prime. Will be close though. Lara will take it..only to face...

Mega Man! Mega Man...the Blue Bomber, 15 years of games, too many to list, will roll all over Mr. Resetti...this like one of the other experts said, could be the biggest blowout of them all in the first round, maybe even in contest history. Mega Man should have been the #1 seed in this division, but oh well. He will take this bracket, beginning with lowly Mr. Resetti.

And on to Round 2 then we will go!
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~Steve Illumina~ Contest Score: 19/24
Offical Sephiroth Supporter: Summer Contest 2003

From: CD Random | Posted: 7/25/2003 3:23:39 PM | Message Detail

Bomberman lost Waaaa! ~_~

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