|Stats & Discussion - Summer
|Page 1 of
10 | | | |
| Posted: 7/1/2003 11:01:59 AM | Message
|Welcome. Those of you who recognize me know what
this is all about. ;) For everyone else, a brief
Last year I began compiling a few modest stats
related to the contest, simply with the intention of providing
information on what the percentage of contestants correctly
predicting each match was. Somehow that spiralled out of control and
I ended up keeping detailed stats about the entire contest. :) Well,
I started a topic in order to post the nightly update and it
eventually morphed into as much a discussion topic as one about
Anyway, this is the 2003 version of that topic. I'll
be posting my usual brand of stats each night, and everyone is
welcome to post their own comments and analysis as well. Should be
This year's stats website:
Last year's stats website:
Last year's stats topic:
And much thanks
of course to last year's crowd. :)
| Posted: 7/1/2003 11:03:08 AM | Message
|good to have you back|
| Posted: 7/1/2003 11:03:37 AM | Message
|Awesome! It's great to see the stats are
Summer 2003 Contest: Go Yoshi! Go Kirby! Go
Current points: 0 out of 0
| Posted: 7/1/2003 11:03:49 AM | Message
|^_^ good to see it back!|
Trashing.. not surprising.. but it shows there's a nice ammount
there who'll constantly anti-vote Link.
sigh* Lemme get my
TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his
proof of why -4^2=16
| Posted: 7/1/2003 11:05:01 AM | Message
|Nice to see it back, solarshadow. I'm looking
forward to reading some nice stats. ^_^|
Join the Official
Magus RPG Party ~ Vote Magus vs. Sam Fisher on July 4th
the beef?'' - Wendy's hamburger commercial ~ My website
| Posted: 7/1/2003 11:11:29 AM | Message
|Nice to have the stats post, was waiting for
this board to open again|
Rocket Elite | Posted: 7/1/2003 11:53:14 AM | Message
|Good to see you back.|
I was comparing this
years votes with last years, or more specifically the Mario vs. Link
Link vs. Aiai 11:15-TOTAL VOTES 48095
Link 11:15-TOTAL VOTES 45865
Aiai 11:30-TOTAL VOTES 49635
Mario vs. Link 11:30-TOTAL VOTES
Link vs. Aiai 11:45-TOTAL VOTES
Mario vs. Link 11:45-TOTAL VOTES 48932
But the Link vs. Aiai started about half an hour early.
So lets add 30 mins to the Mario vs. Link battle.
Aiai 11:15-TOTAL VOTES 48095
Mario vs. Link 11:45-TOTAL VOTES
Link vs. Aiai 11:30-TOTAL VOTES
Mario vs. Link 12:00-TOTAL VOTES 50463
Link vs. Aiai 11:45-TOTAL VOTES 51191
Mario vs. Link
12:15-TOTAL VOTES 51994
match goes all the way to midnight, we will see the match break
100000 total votes with Link having 91000 of them. Also if Aiai is
lucky, it will break 10000 votes.
NidorinaF(Amber)/100 TangelaM(Spike)/100 HypnoM(Essence)
| Posted: 7/1/2003 11:55:59 AM | Message
|Thank god to have someone smart back on the
board from last year, thanks Solar, this is useful, if you need help
with stats or whatever hit me up|
Ever wonder if one of the
people on this board is really some 45 year old fat guy in the back
area of Funcoland playing dungeons and dragons by himself?
| Posted: 7/1/2003 12:28:40 PM | Message
|i am from last year.|
| Posted: 7/1/2003 12:29:12 PM | Message
|It's about 1:30 PM EST, and already this match
has had about as many votes as the first match in its entirety did
last year-- I wonder how high the totals will go for the interesting
"You think you're right, but you know you're
wrong." -- My friend, master debater
| Posted: 7/1/2003 12:32:47 PM | Message
|good to see that your back for this years. your
stat thread was one that i looked for every night last year. nice to
see it again.|
Summer 2003 Contest Status: Picks
0/0 Points 0/0
Link vs. AiAi
Cares? | Posted: 7/1/2003 12:35:44 PM | Message
|Good to see you back solarshadow.|
surprised that the vote totals of this year's first match will
eclipse last year's first match. Afterall, this time around more
people know about the contest.
| Posted: 7/1/2003 12:36:38 PM | Message
|The increased number of voters isn't surprising.
More people probably come here for game help than before, not to
mention the 300,000 accounts created in the past year.|
| Posted: 7/1/2003 1:07:41 PM | Message
|* comes in out of storm *|
Ugh, the board
sure got ugly quick, eh?
I can't believe how many votes are
being cast! Y'know something's changed when a first round blow-out
gets more votes than last year's final. So why the much improved
turn out? I suppose that Link is responsible for at least some of
And speaking of Link... wow. What a great start. Any
doubts I had in my mind of becoming champion again have been dashed.
If the anti-Link vote can't even muster 10%, I can't see how he can
Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle
Current Record: 0-0 / 0 points won / 0 points lost
XIX | Posted: 7/1/2003 2:42:01 PM | Message
|By themselves, Anti-Link voters are powerless.
But against someone who's popular in his own right, they could make
As for you solarshadow, it's great to have
you back. Every tournement needs some play-by-play, and you are no
less than perfect for that job.
- Cecil The Nineteenth.
Proud Member of the Freedom Fighters. Sonic *will*
| Posted: 7/1/2003 7:02:43 PM | Message
All right...now for NEXT match, my
Fox will ride the anti-Pokemon wave.
Use the Cloud theorem.
Both of these characters
faced Cloud last year.
Fox fared better than Pikachu vs
Thus, Fox >
Good to see you back on track, solar!
always, Mega Man wins this year!
It has been written, thus it
shall be done.
MEGA MAN RD. 1: vs Mr.
RD. 1: (8)Pikachu vs (9)Fox (1/1 pts.)
| Posted: 7/1/2003 7:12:54 PM | Message
|My Link theorem works as this...|
when hating him think of the new games, but he was THE RPG in his
day when the original came out, everyone knows link, he's nearly as
popular as mario, and he has a sword and shield... he's the original
hero, and he's in many games that have kept us entertained for years
The reason most people are mad is because they are
upset they're man isn't winnin it... oh well... hey I repeat, it's
good to have solar back
Ever wonder if one of the people
on this board is really some 45 year old fat guy in the back area of
Funcoland playing dungeons and dragons by himself? LCSS
Morgoth | Posted: 7/1/2003 7:14:27 PM | Message
|It's great to have you back
"Everything gold does not glitter
those who wander are lost"
| Posted: 7/1/2003 7:14:54 PM | Message
|To add my $.02 to the
Granted, there are a lot more people paying
attention to this first match than the first match last year, but I
don't believe this pace will continue. My opinion is that vote
numbers will slowly decrease over the rest of the first round, save
for the "big" matches, before beginning their inevitable climb to
absurd levels in the next round.
My theory? Even if there are
nearly 300,000 more users from last year (myself included, although
I saw the first tourney in its entirety), this first match is the
novelty part of this. Many people, IMHO, are voting because it's
something different than a regular Vote of the Day, but after a few
days of this, things will have settled down into a more stable
| Posted: 7/1/2003 7:18:02 PM | Message
|Hiya Solarshadow! Awesome to see you're
First, a question: Will you have stats to compare the
number of votes between the matches of the same date for both
contests? Like, Mario/Servbot vs. Link/AiAi? And also, I suggest
comparing the totals up to a given point. Like, the first x
matches of 2002 vs. the first x matches of
Secondly... records and milestones set by Link vs.
-Most votes ever for a first round match (previous
record holder: Cloud vs. Fox at around 72000)
CHEATING: Biggest vote gap in SC history
-MAYBE: first match
before the division finals to ever hit 100000
character ever to have 70000, ALMOST CERTAINLY 80000, MAYBE 90000
votes in one match
Third... preview of Pikachu vs. Fox and
review of Link vs. AiAi.
I'll be quick... Pokémon may be back
in the groove with the release of Ruby and Sapphire, but still, many
Pokémaniacs believe any Pikachus should be killed on sight. I, for
one, think basing the franchise around Pikachu over any
better-looking Pokémon (Mewtwo anyone?) was a huge marketing success
in the short-term, but the biggest mistake EVAR in the long-term.
Fox, while obscure, and despite the fact that his most recent title
bombed, has much less haters, and if SSBM has any influence on the
voting, he'll take the cake even more easily, because of his
top-tier capabilities (I don't know how the hell he's top tier, but
then again, Sheik is the only top-tier character I'm good
As for Link vs. AiAi... my second point pretty much
sums it up, along with these three words (the final ones of this
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake
(CAN) . . . . . 0/0 . . . . . T-1 (?-way) . . . . . 0 lost
| Posted: 7/1/2003 7:47:59 PM | Message
|Aw, man...how did I miss this one.|
And how I
have missed this one--the best topic of the contest, as far
as I'm concerned.
I'll probably be gleaning a lot of the
match-review commentary from this topic, actually, If it's okay with
you guys. =) I'm still debating whether I should make my own topic
or not, but if this one's anything like last year's, mine could
never compete anyway....
Now then. Commentary.
is scary. O_o; Link is getting entirely too many votes for this
matchup. I knew we had more users here now, but I didn't think we'd
get twice as many voters again for this contest. I don't even
want to think about this year's Mario/Crono....
have said, I'm surprised at the lack of Link anti-votes; I was
actually expecting the anti-vote to be magnified for this
one. Everyone knew Link couldn't lose this match, so I figured a
good number of his fans would vote against him just for fun this
time, then vote for him later on. But if this is the best that even
that total can muster...well...things really don't look good
for Magus and Samus. >_<
Be back later
Gamefaqs Character Battle News and Notes (Latest Update:
| Posted: 7/1/2003 7:53:30 PM | Message
|Cool. Nice to see your doing the stats again
Solar, one of the reasons I took such an interest in last years
If you need any help figuring out the stats, I
can probably set up a spreadsheet that would work out the stats
reasonably quickly. I guess that's how you did it last year though,
and probably will this year. So if you want any help, just
I'll try to contribute a bit this year anyway, like last
year. It might just be bumping the topic, but I guess even that
Everyone that says ''There's no such thing as a
stupid question'', has obviously never visited this board.
| Posted: 7/1/2003 8:10:25 PM | Message
|Nice to see you back Solar. One of the best
running topics from last summer which can only get better this year.
I look forward to reading!|
"Saying "They're not metal,
they suck" is like saying broccoli isn't a vegetable because it
looks like a tree." - Ireviewgames
| Posted: 7/2/2003 1:46:43 AM | Message
|Here's a little data on Link vs. AiAi for the
Polls Open: From 6-30-03 at 11:23 PM to
7-1-03 at 11:48 PM
Vote Totals: 92998 (Link) to 8802
Percentages: 91.35% to 8.65%
Polls Locked to 15-minute Updates: 11:35
Results At That Time: 1624 to 163--90.88% to 9.12%
Accuracy Rating: 99.48%
I was going to
post it on my match review at the website, but it just fits in
better at a Stat Index, you know?
Character Battle News and Notes (Latest Update: 7-1-03)
Cares? | Posted: 7/2/2003 1:52:00 AM | Message
|The big question is will we see these kind of
overall voting numbers throughout the entire 1st round? If not, then
I think Link will have this the bag. But Fox v Pikachu has already
past 10K, so this may actually be the norm for the entire contest. I
just wonder how many votes will see for a marquee matchup if a
bottom-feeder match like Link v AiAi got that many?|
sox 777 | Posted: 7/2/2003 5:17:03 PM | Message
Summer Contest 2003: 1 out of 1
| Posted: 7/2/2003 5:24:09 PM | Message
|Hmmm... consider this a bump in
Match #2 Review
Ouch. Fox WOOPS
Pikachu with great skill and power that remain unequaled by his
opponent. And the worst thing about it is, people are actually
surprised at it. Many a Pikachu fan though the rage over
Ruby/Sapphire would put the electric mouse on top, and that combined
with the dud that is Star Fox Adventures. Neither influenced the
outcome: Pikachu haters are still as numerous as ever, even among
Pokémaniacs. And Fox had the two original Star Fox titles, and
especially the SSBs, behind him. So SFA bombing had little to no
meaning. (Dante should take note of this, even though he's still
getting the bowels beat out of him by Ryu.)
Hours before the contest started, Ganondorf was
believed to have enough potential to give Magus a lot of trouble,
and maybe even beat him. Now, the surge of new users through the
link on the poll results page has changed that: they make him look
like an underdog against Tidus. The same Tidus who nearly lost to
Claire Redfield and was beat by (quite frankly, a lackluster) Sonic.
And now he faces the champion's "teammate". And while Ganondorf has
nothing really special, he has spillover popularity and is
Nintendo's best villain IMO. Add the Tidus haters into the mix and
you get a Ganondorf win. However, this could either be close or a
blowout a little bigger than today's. Saturday's match is my first
and only worry for my perfect bracket in the North. Magus-killer or
Tidus-jobber? I think somewhere in between.
Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . . 1/1 . . . . . T-1 (?-way) . .
. . . 0 lost
| Posted: 7/2/2003 5:28:49 PM | Message
|Hello everyone. I've just got time for a quick
post, so I'll respond to the questions/comments directed at me a
little bit later on.|
I must say that I'm very surprised at
the phenomenal voter turnout for the first match. I expected more
interest than last year, but not by this much. The number of voters
has almost doubled compared to Mario and Servbot's opening match
last year (53,213 votes versus 101,800 for Link/AiAi). What does
this say about future rounds? Might we break 200,000? How many would
show up for a Mario/Crono rematch? It's a scary thought.
for today's match, things are playing out pretty much as expected.
Comparing Fox and Pikachu's performances last year, we can see (as
some have pointed out) that both fought and lost to Cloud. Fox
earned 25.39% of the vote in defeat, while Pikachu achieved only
20.49%. This would seem to indicate a fairly easily victory for Fox,
although we might expect the outcome to be a little closer than it
currently is (68/32). Pikachu seems to be slowly but steadily
declining in popularity. As for Fox, good luck next round,
Tomorrow's match features Tidus and Ganondorf.
Examining last year's results doesn't really help us much here.
Ganondorf didn't make the 2002 cut, and Tidus didn't fight any
comparable characters (he beat Claire with 55.46% and lost to Sonic
with 41.17%). However, we can note that while Tidus did well against
some popular characters, he wasn't particularly impressive last
year. FFX's popularity can be assumed to be in decline, perhaps
further affecting Tidus' support. Ganondorf, on the other hand, has
the benefit of being associated with the ever-popular Legend of
Zelda series, in which he has been featured more recently. Also, he
may derive additional support from Link's contest successes. This is
our first Nintendo vs. Square bout, but it will certainly not be the
most exciting. I expect Ganondorf to take a narrow victory in a
relatively uneventful match.
| Posted: 7/2/2003 5:44:26 PM | Message
|excellent. i enjoyed your stats and commentary
last year and look forward to seeing them again this year. (and
kudos to ncrdrg for reposting last years stat topic on the board
again this year, though its gotta be lost by
personally, i cannot believe the first match this year
broke 100,000. only three matches last year broke 100,000: Mario vs.
Cloud, Mario vs. Crono, and Link vs. Sephiroth. so is every match
going to break 100,000? will any match break 200,000? maybe if Link
faces Cloud in the final four? things are getting a lot more
interesting this year.
Currently a fan of these
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka,
Sephiroth and Mr. Resetti
| Posted: 7/2/2003 5:50:41 PM | Message
|My two cents on match #2:|
Jesus are you
kiddin me? Like many other board members, I predicted Fox victory,
but by this large amount of gap? I expected around 60%-40% at most,
boy this is quite surprising. Anti Pika group is much much larger
than I imagined. There seems to be many anti-Pikachu gamers even
amongst the fans of Pokemon! Could Mewtwo have fared better?
Possibly, we'll never know I guess.
On to match #3:
don't see much of a contest here. While the popularity of Ganondorf
remains mystery at this point, it is certainly higher than Tidus'.
Legend of Zelda franchize is extremely popular, as number of "Top
100 games of all time" lists feature whopping 3 Zelda games in top
10. No other character in the contest can boast same feat, except
Link and Zelda. Will this reason alone make Ganondorf a juggernaut
in this contest? It'd be interesting to see which Ganondorf picture
CJayC uses for the poll, but I don't think it'll change the
inevitable outcome. Your safe Ganondorf, at least for this round.
| Posted: 7/2/2003 5:54:07 PM | Message
|Tidus will go down... but mainly because how bad
FFX was trash talked and all that **** about Tidus. It's stupid
propaganda of people unable to understand the character if you ask
me... but the fact doesn't change that this is a backslash that will
assure him a loss to Ganondorf... But if you ask me... the
next-gaming fans will then surely rally to Magus too to whoop ganon
outta the surface!|
sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!?
Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why
| Posted: 7/2/2003 7:03:15 PM | Message
|This is probably the best place to post the
analysis I did on last year's results. I used a very simple
recursive formula to rank each character in the tournament last
year, working backwards from the Link-Mario final.|
it works: Say Character Mario received 36,796 votes in direct
competition against Link, who receives 61,415. Mario's value is
36,796. Now we can calculate the value for Crono. Mario received
53,831 votes against Crono's 53,716. Adjust Crono's votes by
multiplying by a factor of (36,796 / 53,831). Thus Crono now has a
value of 36,717.4. Repeat this for all characters in the poll,
working backwards. The results are posted at the link
CHARACTER RANKINGS BASED ON 2002 SUMMER CONTEST
first column shows what that character was seeded as last year (not
really relevant). The important columns are the Votes column
and column D. The Votes column shows how many votes
the character was expected to receive against Link's constant value
of 61,415. Column D converts this into percentage
The conclusion from this reveals Sephiroth and Mega
Man to be Link's toughest potential oppoenents, with Samus and Sonic
not far behind. Mario, Crono, and Cloud are each on a popularity
tier behind Samus and Sonic.
Of course there are a lot of new
entrants this year, including some potential powerhouses like Magus,
Ganon, Luigi, Yuna, Ramza, Kefka, and Tommy Vercetti. I think the
calculations give a good set of guidelines though. I like to compare
certain characters with others. For instance, I say that Yuna should
be slightly more popular than Tidus, who received an impressive
value of 29,572.3. Thus she should beat Knuckles about 60%-40%.
However Yuna vs. Snake in the 2nd round becomes extremely difficult
to call. I would think Ganon would be around Snake, or between Snake
and Cloud on the popularity scale, so I expect him to beat Tidus. It
should be close though, and it's tough to guess where Ganon should
Here are the most popular characters from last year's
tournament, along with their values:
The first column is
the character name, the 2nd is their value in terms of votes, and
the third is the % of votes they would be expected to receive when
matched up against Link
comparing the round that, according to the ranings, the characters
should've advanced to with the round they actually advanced to, I've
made a list of the Most Lucky and Most Unlucky entrants from last
year. The Expected round they should've advanced too was just
calculated based on their ranking; for instance, the bottom 32 were
expected to lose in round 1, the next 16 lowest were expected to
lose in round 2, and so on; the top 2 were expected to advance to
the finals, round 6.
Most Lucky 2003
Unlucky 2003 Entrants
The Lucky entrants each advanced 2 rounds beyond where
they should have, and the Unlucky entrants each advanced 2 rounds
less than where they should have.
| Posted: 7/3/2003 12:23:55 AM | Message
|Ahh, the triumph of Science.|
I was very
surprised to hear numerous people keep saying how Tidus did very
poorly last year, when in fact he was merely unlucky. He actually
had quite the solid showing overall, with a value score of 29572.3.
Seems people greatly underestimated his popularity. My math,
however, did not (I take this as a positive sign).
are very surprised that this is very close, but I expected it to be.
It would take someone of Sonic level or above to blow Tidus out, and
Ganon is just not at that level.
Now, people are going to say
that this close contest bodes poorly for Ganon against Magus, if
Ganon does indeed defeat Tidus--however, that will again be poor
logic. Tidus is quite popular, and so is Ganon. I expect Magus to
defeat Ganon, but it shall not be lop-sided.
| Posted: 7/3/2003 1:20:27 AM | Message
|Hmm, not a lot of stat work for me to do just
yet. CJayC isn't providing the information I need to calculate
prediction percentages yet and you can't really have a Top 10 list
of any sort with only two completed matches. :) Oh well, things will
pick up in the second round (and then some).|
I did a bit of
work on the website, updating the sections I could. Still not much
to see there. Although I added a new section for Jjukil's poll stats
(posted by him above). I expect I'll change the formatting for it a
bit, but for now it's simply there for everyone to see. Thanks,
Not much else to say. I sure hope the odds will be
Morgoth | Posted: 7/3/2003 1:30:33 AM | Message
|Damn, I thought I could come back from work,
look at the poll results, see Ganondorf leading by a few thousands
and go to sleep, but it's way closer than I thought it would
Am I the only one who expected a 60/40 or 65/35 win by
Ganondorf or have we all underestimated Tidus?
gold does not glitter, Not all those who wander are lost"
| Posted: 7/3/2003 1:38:10 AM | Message
|I predicted that Ganondorf would score a "narrow
victory". But I expected narrow not slim (or slim to none).
Tidus is starting to scare me. This is by no means
| Posted: 7/3/2003 1:47:31 AM | Message
|[This message was deleted at the request of the
| Posted: 7/3/2003 1:48:42 AM | Message
|Heh. Remember that "morning vote" I was
mentioning earlier? And how it can only really make a difference in
the close matches?|
This could be one of those matches.
Granted, I have no idea which side the "morning vote"
will favor. But in a match with a 600 vote gap, it could definitely
turn the tide, one way or the other.
I'll put up the
Fox/Pikachu poll stats in a little while; busy doing the full
results for Terran's
Gamefaqs Character Battle News and Notes (Latest Update:
| Posted: 7/3/2003 11:28:36 AM | Message
|There' not a whole lot to say that hasn't been
said already, but I'll try.|
Match #1 - Review
win. Link is clearly back and better than ever. Any anti-votes were
rendered meaningless - 90 000 votes, I can't believe it! Over 100
000 votes cast is astounding too, will we see those numbers
throughout the contest? If there were any doubts, they're gone now,
Link's title of champion is almost guaranteed again.
Slightly more interesting, Fox exerts a clear
victory over Pikachu. Quite a few posters on the board seemed to be
shocked that Pikachu lost. Fox did alright, although he doesn't
strike me as a very strong character; I'd say most of his votes came
from Pokemon/Pikachu haters. Fox will lose to Link next round,
hopefully he'll be able to do better than Aiai. Another impressive
voting turnout - almost 100 000 again.
Match #3 -
Yikes, I had no idea this would have been so close, I
guess many of us did underestimate Tidus. About an hour ago, Tidus
had caught up slightly - to a gap of about 300 votes. The gap now
stands at about 500. It looks like the morning vote has helped Tidus
slightly. Why that is I couldn't say. Yesterday Fox's lead over
Pikachu only seemed to increase in the morning, so make of that what
you will. This is the first match where the board (almost) got
wrong. Most assumed Ganon would advance easily. Ringworm's betting
topic had users betting on Ganon almost exclusivly. That being said,
neither of these contestants have shown the strength to possibly
beat Magus next round.
Match #4 - Preview
Magus, most predict he'll easily take Sam, and I would agree. Magus
shouldn't have too much trouble at all with this matchup.
Summer 2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle
Current Record: 2-0 / 2 points won / 0 points lost
| Posted: 7/3/2003 2:57:57 PM | Message
|Well, we shouldn't really be counting on
Magus to slaughter Ganondorf yet, since we haven't seen him in
But I certainly hope he can do better than
Tidus did. =P And it won't take much to put him over the
Pika/Fox Times And Changes:
From 7-1-03 at 11:48 PM to 7-2-03 at 11:51 PM
Totals: 67856 (Fox) to 30962 (Pikachu)
68.67% to 31.33%
Polls Locked to
15-minute Updates: 7-2-03 @ 12:30 AM
Results At That
Time: 2039 to 4087--33.28% to 66.72%
(The Accuracy Rating thing from last time is bogus. All
I did was divide Link's percentage when the polls opened by his
final percentage. Now do the same for AiAi's numbers. =P The new
Differential--the difference between the two--gets the same
point across, but has the added benefit of actually being
Gamefaqs Character Battle News and Notes (Latest Update:
sox 777 | Posted: 7/3/2003 4:03:37 PM | Message
|I just realized that Fox McCloud now holds
number 3 in the highest number of votes for one match over this year
and last as of now. He got more votes than anybody last year except
Link over Scorpion!|
Summer Contest 2003: 1 out of 1
Stpho | Posted: 7/3/2003 4:25:56 PM | Message
lines, 160 characters total
| Posted: 7/3/2003 4:28:33 PM | Message
|Match #2 - Review|
Not much to say. A
detailed analysis of the outcome would be nearly meaningless, since
the two characters were only fighting for the right to lose to Link
next round anyway. Also, since there are no other Pokémon or Star
Fox characters in the tournament, we can't really get any insight
for future matches out of this result. It shouldn't be surprising
that Fox won, although the size of the victory was greater than I'd
expected. The only question now is how dignified can Fox look in
next round's defeat?
Match #3 - Current
This match is
a lot closer than I'd expected it to be. At the moment it looks like
Ganondorf has it, since it would take a major comeback (over 1,500
votes) for Tidus to win. Still, this match could end up even closer
by the time the poll closes. If last year's results are any
indicator, this could be the closest match of the first
Match #4 - Preview
Sam Fisher and Magus are
both new competitors in the contest this year, so their chances are
hard to gauge. Sam is the generic star of a recently popular
stealth/action game, and Magus is a highly memorable character from
an old 16-bit RPG. That's about as disparate as you can get. Still,
this one should be easy to judge. RPG characters do very well in
this contest, and Chrono Trigger has a huge following on GameFAQs
(as Crono proved last year). Whereas fairly generic human
characters, even in the starring role, tend not to get much support
(see Gordon Freeman and Max Payne, but note the exception of Solid
Snake). In the end, it seems clear that Magus will take this one
easily. His margin of victory will probably be notably higher than
| Posted: 7/3/2003 6:13:34 PM | Message
|I wish I could see my posting history so I could
find this topic faster. Oh well, still one week to
Match #3 Review
It's not over, but we can
assume Ganondorf won. Or can we? Samus came back from that kind of
margin against Sonic. Weird, we didn't hear the word "cheating"
much. Not close enough, I guess, more like DK vs. Aya. Tidus does
much better than most anticipated, because we didn't gauge his
popularity correctly as related to last year's performance. He did,
in fact, extremely well against Sonic, one of the biggest contenders
for the hectic West of 2002. That combined with the fact that
Nintendo fans don't back their villains nearly as much as their
heroes make for a repeat of the match that took place exactly 11
months ago today. But might I add, I keep my perfect bracket. But,
despite this, it makes some future matches scare the heck out of
-Squall vs. Jill: Picking Jill, what was I smoking? Looks
like no matter how hated a FF character is, he will always get a lot
of support no matter what. But... the underestimated Tidus beat
Claire by little last year. This alone says how popular RE is. So...
maybe I wasn't smoking something strong after all.
vs. Yuna: If Yuna > Tidus as suggested, then Knuckles is toast. I
only had Auron advancing to R2 in the FF10 crew.
Ness: Nintendo fans, as stated earlier, don't back their villains. I
have Bowser advancing, but Ness could prevent it from
Match #4 Preview
A breather, even
though Fisher seems quite popular. Now, with today's results,
doubters can shut up: if Magus wins this one, he gets a bye to the
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake
(CAN) . . . . . 2/2 . . . . . T-1 (?-way) . . . . . 0
Today's pick: Ganondorf
| Posted: 7/4/2003 1:13:32 AM | Message
|Replies to some of the posts
ardonite, Rodri316, ncrdrg, Bananaquest, dimeat,
DebonairBassman, zerolaw, Who Cares?, Cecil XIX, MMXcalibur, King
Morgoth, Seanchan - Thanks for the kind words and the continued
support. I recognize a lot of you from last year, and things just
wouldn't have been the same without your contributions.
Team Rocket Elite - Nice comparison. It's interesting
to see how close the voting totals of the first match were to last
year's finals. It looks like the popularity of the polls carried
directly over from that match.
Samberdog - Maybe we've
underestimated the so-called "anti-vote"? Perhaps it could be as
meaningless as TJF and revenge voting? Who knows. I certainly
expected more joke votes and anti-votes for Link. I was thinking
something on the order of the 25% Servbot got against Mario last
year. So much for that. :)
Slowflake - First, a
question: Will you have stats to compare the number of votes between
the matches of the same date for both contests?
but probably nothing formal. If there's something particularly
notable I'll probably mention it in a post, sort of like those
little "bonus stat" items that I threw in occasionally last year. Of
course, with the hugely inflated vote totals this year, much of the
potential comparison may be meaningless. So we'll
Secondly... records and milestones set by Link vs.
Cool points. At this rate, every match this year
will break records from last year. :) That'll make it harder to
compare the two contests.
Ringworm - If you need
any help figuring out the stats, I can probably set up a spreadsheet
that would work out the stats reasonably quickly. I guess that's how
you did it last year though, and probably will this
For the first couple of rounds or so I actually
used a calculator. Once that became a ridiculous waste of time
(which actually happened rather quickly) I switched to using a
spreadsheet. It was set up so that I could just copy and paste each
night's numbers and it would output the totals for me. Saved me a
heap of time and effort. :) I've still got the spreadsheet from last
year, so I should be good for this year as well. Thanks for the
cyko - (and kudos to ncrdrg for
reposting last years stat topic on the board again this year, though
its gotta be lost by now.)
Yes, kudos to ncrdrg. And his
topic is actually still around, amazingly enough. You can find it
- This is probably the best place to post the analysis I did on
last year's results. I used a very simple recursive formula to rank
each character in the tournament last year, working backwards from
the Link-Mario final.
Very cool stuff. I think Haste2 did
a similar analysis last year (but without quite as much detail - I
like the lucky and unlucky lists). Check ncrdrg's rebirth topic (the
link is above). Everyone should also check out King Morgoth's
character rankings chart (which, to my shame, I still haven't gotten
around to putting on the stats site):
sox 777 - I just realized that Fox McCloud now holds number 3
in the highest number of votes for one match over this year and last
as of now. He got more votes than anybody last year except Link over
Wow, that is amazing. I guess that gives us a
good idea of just how popular the contest is going to be this year.
Anyone else badly want to change their tiebreaker number?
Jjukil - Nice work with the poll stats (and your
awesome website). I suppose you intend to keep that up for the
entire contest? My hat is off to you merely for the attempt.
NeoElfboy - Where are you? You were around during
the nominations period. Hurry up and come back.
| Posted: 7/4/2003 1:20:33 AM | Message
|Nintendo fans don't back their villains
nearly as much as their heroes make for a repeat of the match that
took place exactly 11 months ago today.|
point. Makes me feel a lot better about picking Yoshi over
I don't really think Ness has the power to take down
the turtle, though. EarthBound's fanbase has always struck me as an
extremely vocal but comparatively small group, and it has its fair
share of haters. Lack of public exposure (except in the SSB games)
is probably going to kill him in this match against one of the most
well-known villains of all time.
"The surest sign of
intelligent life outside Earth is that none of them has tried to
contact us" ~Calvin
Driver | Posted: 7/4/2003 7:48:11 AM | Message
|Bumpin' for Solar.|
Check out my video
| Posted: 7/4/2003 8:34:24 AM | Message
|well, here is my input for the rest of the north
division. things will be relatively uninteresting compared to that
Tidus/Ganondorf match last night. *whew* Magus, Luigi, KOS-MOS, and
Samus will all dispense of their competitors with ease. i believe
that each of them will get at least twice as many votes as their
respective losers. (Magus currently has 67.2% of the votes in his
match right now, about twice as many as Sam.)|
Squall vs. Jill Valentine will prove to be a close match; not
as close as Tidus vs. Ganondorf, but still close. Squall seems to
have picked up a little support since his appearance in kingdom
hearts (or at least the anti-squall hatred is down a little),
putting him on about the same level as Tidus (as a whiny final
fantasy hero). but you can't underestimate Jill. she was able to
dispense of both Kirby and the unimpressive Bomberman last year, but
she hasn't really done much in the past year to gain more support.
the amount of votes she gets, though, might depend on the amount of
cleavage in her picture. but, i find it hard to believe that Jill
could beat Ganondorf, so if Tidus could almost beat Ganondorf, then
Squall should be able to take Jill, albeit not by much.
to solarshadow- i think it's awesome how you acknowledge and thank
pretty much everyone who says something intelligent in your topics.
Currently a fan of these Summer2K3
Magus, Cloud, Zero, Bowser, Kefka, Sephiroth
and Mr. Resetti
| Posted: 7/4/2003 3:15:40 PM | Message
|Match #3 - Review|
results are finally up! Tidus and Ganon battled out in what is the
closest and most popular poll yet this year. Predictably, Gannondorf
won, though it was much closer than most anticipated. Tidus did
quite well, either his popularity has gained or we underestimated
his performance against Sonic (maybe 40% isn't too bad after all).
Ganon's less than decisive victory shouldn't be too much for Magus
to conquer next round.
Match #4 - Current
big surprise. After a fun couple of minutes in the beginning things
have calmed down and Magus is easily out pacing Sam, though perhaps
not as much as some predicted. Hopefully Crono will be able to do
significantly better than this. I still think Magus will be able to
beat Ganon in round two, however.
Match #5 -
I'm sure I'm not the only one who's a lot more
unsure of this match now than they were before the contest started.
I, like many, chose Jill, but the board now seems to be leaning
towards Squall, and after Tidus's strong performance Jill may just
end up getting the boot. Hopefully that won't be the case though. I
want to hold onto my perfect bracket for as long as
I hope CJayC gets around to posting user results,
and odds, and all that fun stuff soon.
2003: "The Great GameFAQs Character Battle II"
Record: 3-0 / 3 points won / 0 points lost
| Posted: 7/4/2003 5:50:01 PM | Message
|6 more days before level 25 and my posting
history! Sad to see Solar's topic gets such few love this year. It
might change with the first stats though.|
Before going to the
review/preview, a reply to a reply to my review of match
An interesting point. Makes me feel a lot better about
picking Yoshi over Bowser.
Well... Bowser is far more
known than Ganondorf. Why? The Zelda games are really more about the
gameplay and adventuring, while SMB is more about kicking Bowser's
cronies' ass. So Bowser is a much more integral part of SMB than
Ganondorf, of Zelda, even though you fight against them in both
series. But I still think Yoshi will win, because he just has an
"it" that Bowser doesn't have.
Now, on to the
Match #4 Review
I'll be doing
this from two points of view: Fisher's and Magus'.
Fisher: Well done, Sam. You went against a juggernaut and did
better than most expected. Too bad the government is going to deny
your existence. Going by this board at least, Fisher had quite the
fanbase, a bit like Dante. Actually, he is doing against Magus
almost exactly what Dante did against Crono. And I guess Splinter
Cell > DMC, since I actually heard of it. Not that it means
anything, but I think it's true. And apparently, in both cases, you
have to know the character once you played it, unlike a certain
Gordon Freeman. Splinter Cell going multi-platform didn't hinder Sam
Magus: With all the factors mentioned above,
Magus > Crono certainly holds true. But, if Magus was really on
par with Sephiroth like I and a few others expected, he would do a
bit better than that. And considered the quality of his opponent, it
would have taken him around 75% to be considered a challenge to Link
in my eyes. And since he isn't... he'll fall against the champ. Good
job nonetheless, you'll easily cruise past Ganondorf. Hey, Tidus
almost beat him!
Match 5 Preview
The Reaper is
a step behind me on this one, and the toll he'll probably make me
pay is sky-high... my perfect bracket. Darn it, it was good while it
lasted. BUT, there is still some hope. Tidus, who we now know was
underestimated the whole time, had some trouble against Claire
Redfield. Now, common sense dictates Jill > Claire, and Tidus
probably > Squall. OMG, my brother is playing Metroid Prime,
which is in my room, from HIS room. WTF is he trying to do. Anyway,
what I was saying is, it might be a tight one. And if I get away
with it, the road is totally clear until Bowser vs.
Bonus Paragraph: Why I think Ncr's hypothesis is
This hypothesis, if you don't know, is "Square
reinforcements" as compared to last year. Last year, at least early
on, matches with big Square characters had unbelievable vote
turnouts (Cloud anyone?). However, while yesterday's was 116k,
higher than the first two matches, it was more because it was a
close match than anything, and logic dictates it would happen. Today
a Square juggernaut is up against a fairly popular character, and we
probably won't break 110k. I think yesterday's
no-brainer-turned-coin-toss happened because of the factors
mentioned in this post as well as my last one.
Summer 2003 Contest: Slowflake (CAN) . . . . .
3/3 . . . . . T-1 (?-way) . . . . . 0 lost
Feel free to link to this page, but not directly
to the FAQs.